Week 12 - 49ers @ Rams RANKINGS Preview

So we approach the next step in determining whether this team can truly contend for the playoffs. While I'm happy they've won 3 straight, it's quite clear that they faced 3 substandard teams. The Vikings and Lions are both average to poor teams. Seattle was being led by draft-bust Seneca Wallace and a very rusty Shaun Alexander.

This week, the 49ers face a reeling, but dangerous, St. Louis Rams team at the Edward Jones Dome. They've lost 5 straight with last week's shutout at the hands of Carolina probably being rock bottom. In my opinion, rock bottom combined with talent makes them very dangerous. A second road win for the 49ers will be quite the task.

As always, rankings are based on Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average):

Rams offense
Total: 11th
Rush: 19th
Pass: 12th

49ers defense
Total: 28th
Rush: 30th
Pass: 29th

Analysis
In spite of being shutout last week by the Panthers, this offense is still as explosive as ever. Torry Holt is long overdue to blow up. I'd expect Steven Jackson to get a lot more than 7 carries, like he did last week. A couple of things worry me. With the injuries to the linebacker corp, if Steven Jackson can get past the front four, the depth isn't there to solidly stop him. The Rams offensive line is banged up so if the Rams were smart, they'd run out as many 3 and 4 receiver sets as possible. The 49ers secondary is relatively weak and most of their success has come against very basic offensive sets. A strong performance by the defense and I think we can finally stop worrying about this unit performing above their heads.

49ers offense
Total: 23rd
Rush: 17th
Pass: 21st

Rams defense
Total: 21st
Rush: 27th
Pass: 17th

Analysis
As we've seen the last few weeks, Frank Gore is going to have to carry this offense, until the passing game can show they are capable of the big play. Alex Smith has effectively managed the game and defenses have respected his potential. However, defenses will soon realize he's not taking many chances and will start to stick 8 men in the box daring Smith to beat them. And of course, a big question is how Antonio Bryant comes out after all the negative publicity. I've got a feeling he's gonna put up big numbers.