49ers Total Offense: 20
Vikings Total Offense: 17
49ers PASSING Offense: 22
Vikings PASSING Offense: 14
49ers RUSHING Offense: 10
Vikings RUSHING Offense: 18
49ers Total Defense: 31
Vikings Total Offense: 12
49ers RUN Defense: 22
Vikings RUN Defense: 2
49ers PASS Defense: 31
Vikings PASS Defense: 26
Strictly looking at the rankings, Gore will face a stiff challenge. If Frank can repeat last week's performance (with about 10 more carries), he will clearly continue his climb into the elite rank of running backs.
If Gore gets shutdown, the rankings would indicate the Vikings pass defense can be exploited. However, a closer examination shows that it's not quite as bad as yards per game would indicate. Using the Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Minnesota Vikings defense goes from #26 to #10. I'll go into the Football Outsiders a little more down the road, but suffice to say, they show the Vikings defense as much better than the numbers indicate.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Depressed Fan Base
Nolan keeps spinning hope as others despair
49ers Nolan can't skirt blame for disastrous season
Reading through the clips today, one would think the 49ers were winless, Alex Smith had regressed to throwing an interception every play, Frank Gore was averaging 1.2 yards per carry and Kwame Harris couldn't defend 165 lbs of me without getting a holding penalty. Well needless to say only one of those things is true.
It was a given that this team was still rebuilding entering this season. However, they hung with a supposedly improved Cardinals team and beat the Rams in relatively convincing fashion, which meant they were speeding up this rebuilding process.
Well clearly parts of the rebuilding process are more advanced than others. In spite of the turnovers on Sunday, the offense is clearly much improved. Throw out the 53 yard run and Gore STILL averaged over 5 yards a carry against the vaunted Bears defense. Alex Smith connected on a beautiful pass to Antonio Bryant. Of course Kwame Harris continues to make mistakes. But things are clearly getting better, and with Vernon Davis on the mend, this offense could become downright explosive.
Defensively, it's a different story. Throw out the 2 wins and the defense has given up 40.4 points a game. They simply can not stop teams from scoring. That's not exactly the most insightful analysis, but it's the truth. However, more people should realize this was the case from Day 1. The team worked to improve the offense this past offseason and has clearly improved it. However, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter signed with the Seahawks and Redskins, respectively. As good as Manny Lawson has been, he's still just a rookie learning the system and what it takes to be a professional (Although I believe that 10 years from now he'll have had a better career than former college teammate and #1 pick Mario Williams, but that's a story for a different day).
The point of that tangent is that I fully expect the personnel department to do a full-scale rebuilding of the defense next spring and summer through the draft and free agency. After starting to build the offense, the 49ers had a defensive-heavy draft in 1981, which yielded the likes of Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson. While a repeat of the '81 class might be tough, the opportunity is there.
I'm not saying the team can expect to go to the Super Bowl like the 1981 squad, but there could be tremendous improvement next year. People certainly don't have to drink the Kool-Aid, but I don't think everyone needs to jump off the bridge just because they got slaughtered by an excellent Bears team.
49ers Nolan can't skirt blame for disastrous season
Reading through the clips today, one would think the 49ers were winless, Alex Smith had regressed to throwing an interception every play, Frank Gore was averaging 1.2 yards per carry and Kwame Harris couldn't defend 165 lbs of me without getting a holding penalty. Well needless to say only one of those things is true.
It was a given that this team was still rebuilding entering this season. However, they hung with a supposedly improved Cardinals team and beat the Rams in relatively convincing fashion, which meant they were speeding up this rebuilding process.
Well clearly parts of the rebuilding process are more advanced than others. In spite of the turnovers on Sunday, the offense is clearly much improved. Throw out the 53 yard run and Gore STILL averaged over 5 yards a carry against the vaunted Bears defense. Alex Smith connected on a beautiful pass to Antonio Bryant. Of course Kwame Harris continues to make mistakes. But things are clearly getting better, and with Vernon Davis on the mend, this offense could become downright explosive.
Defensively, it's a different story. Throw out the 2 wins and the defense has given up 40.4 points a game. They simply can not stop teams from scoring. That's not exactly the most insightful analysis, but it's the truth. However, more people should realize this was the case from Day 1. The team worked to improve the offense this past offseason and has clearly improved it. However, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter signed with the Seahawks and Redskins, respectively. As good as Manny Lawson has been, he's still just a rookie learning the system and what it takes to be a professional (Although I believe that 10 years from now he'll have had a better career than former college teammate and #1 pick Mario Williams, but that's a story for a different day).
The point of that tangent is that I fully expect the personnel department to do a full-scale rebuilding of the defense next spring and summer through the draft and free agency. After starting to build the offense, the 49ers had a defensive-heavy draft in 1981, which yielded the likes of Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson. While a repeat of the '81 class might be tough, the opportunity is there.
I'm not saying the team can expect to go to the Super Bowl like the 1981 squad, but there could be tremendous improvement next year. People certainly don't have to drink the Kool-Aid, but I don't think everyone needs to jump off the bridge just because they got slaughtered by an excellent Bears team.
Monday, October 30, 2006
10/30 Injury Report
While the team's psyche should be bruised after yesterday, physically, the team is in good shape.
- Maurice Hicks - Questionable (Concussion) - The Chronicle game recap listed Hicks as the only player on the injury report, while sf49ers.com listed nobody on the injury report. I'd expect Hicks to show up there as well once MRIs are completed and the team releases their first official injury report later this week.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Bears 41 - 49ers 10
So unfortunately I came pretty close to nailing the worst case scenario...at least for the first half. The 49ers did everything in their power to help the Bears replicate the 1986 Super Bowl Shuffle squad. After one half I really didn't feel like there would be any positives to come out of this loss, but low and behold, the 49ers did manage to put something together in the 2nd half. So, onto the good, the bad and the future.
The Good
The Good
- Frank Gore managed to rush for 111 yards on a mere 12 carries. Even if you take out the 53 yard skamper early in the 4th quarter, that's 5.3 yards per carry against the best defense in football.
- No major injuries as the injury report for next week right now consists only of Maurice Hicks
- The Bears were shut out in the 2nd half
- The reason Gore only had 12 carries was due mostly to the fact that the team was down early and often. Even though they went for it on 4th down once in the 2nd half, the Bears more or less took the pedal off the metal the last 30 minutes of the game. There was a healthy dose of Brian Griese, although I'm surprised Cedric Benson did not get more touches.
- Alex Smith didn't have an atrocious game in terms of passing, but the turnovers were definitely an issue. 2 fumbles lost and the interception did not help the cause as the Bears put a touchdown on the board after every turnover. Not how you beat an undefeated team.
- A feisty Vikings squad comes to Monster Park next week coming off a short week due to tonight's MNF matchup against the Patriots. The Vikings are 4-2 and appear to be in the early driver's seat for a wild card berth (no way they pass Da Bears). A stout defense combined with a conservative, but solid offense makes them a tough matchup. More to come after the Vikings get through tonight.
Week 8 Game Day Links
Quick Chronicle Preview
Quality piece on BY who could very well be playing his last season with the team
Eric Johnson has had to prove himself over and over again
Turner vs. Turner
Trust me, nobody's gonna forget Vasher's 108 yard TD return
Brian Urlacher? Yea he's pretty good!
Ya think?!
Interesting take on Mike Singletary as a conduit between the 2 teams
The Sac Bee gives a brief look into Eric Johnson's pre-game preparation
Quality piece on BY who could very well be playing his last season with the team
Eric Johnson has had to prove himself over and over again
Turner vs. Turner
Trust me, nobody's gonna forget Vasher's 108 yard TD return
Brian Urlacher? Yea he's pretty good!
Ya think?!
Interesting take on Mike Singletary as a conduit between the 2 teams
The Sac Bee gives a brief look into Eric Johnson's pre-game preparation
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Final Thoughts and Analysis for Week 8
While this is just 1 game out of 16, I'll just say that I'd like to see a statement made in this game. A victory is gonna be quite tough and obviously is unexpected. The 49ers are 16 point underdogs, so clearly nobody thinks they can win this game. Dan Shanoff (formerly of ESPN's Daily Quickie) in picking the Bears said: "There will be no need for any sort of Monday Night Miracle." Well maybe the Bears will need a Sunday Morning Miracle.
If the 49ers can get on the board early this could turn into a decent little game. Maybe we can get something akin to Rocky: "The Russian is Cut!" and to quote Duke, "You see? He's not a machine! He's a man!" I realize maybe I'm going overboard for just another regular season game. But if this team is going to continue on th rebuilding path, they're gonna have to start beating teams like this. All wins count the same, but continually beating the Rams isn't gonna cut it long term.
Now for predictions. Each week I'm gonna give a best case prediction and a worst case prediction with a little description of how and why:
Best Case Scenario
49ers 24 - Bears 9: The Bears defense falters without Mike Brown. Thanks to the healthy offensive line, Frank Gore runs wild and Alex Smith has time to pick apart the patchwork secondary. Rex Grossman's struggles continue and by the 4th quarter Kyle Orton is under center. New schemes confuse the Bears leading and combined with a more physical secondary, the Bears receivers are not allowed to break any big plays.
Worst Case Scenario
Bears 45 - 49ers 0: Rex Grossman bounces back from his hiccup against the Cardinals to shred the 49ers secondary. Cedric Benson ends up playing half the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter as Thomas Jones gets the time off. The Bears defense overwhelms the young 49ers as Alex Smith throws 3 interceptions and Frank Gore rushes for less than 50 yards.
Let's hope for the best, pray against the worst and expect something in between.
If the 49ers can get on the board early this could turn into a decent little game. Maybe we can get something akin to Rocky: "The Russian is Cut!" and to quote Duke, "You see? He's not a machine! He's a man!" I realize maybe I'm going overboard for just another regular season game. But if this team is going to continue on th rebuilding path, they're gonna have to start beating teams like this. All wins count the same, but continually beating the Rams isn't gonna cut it long term.
Now for predictions. Each week I'm gonna give a best case prediction and a worst case prediction with a little description of how and why:
Best Case Scenario
49ers 24 - Bears 9: The Bears defense falters without Mike Brown. Thanks to the healthy offensive line, Frank Gore runs wild and Alex Smith has time to pick apart the patchwork secondary. Rex Grossman's struggles continue and by the 4th quarter Kyle Orton is under center. New schemes confuse the Bears leading and combined with a more physical secondary, the Bears receivers are not allowed to break any big plays.
Worst Case Scenario
Bears 45 - 49ers 0: Rex Grossman bounces back from his hiccup against the Cardinals to shred the 49ers secondary. Cedric Benson ends up playing half the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter as Thomas Jones gets the time off. The Bears defense overwhelms the young 49ers as Alex Smith throws 3 interceptions and Frank Gore rushes for less than 50 yards.
Let's hope for the best, pray against the worst and expect something in between.
49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Defensive Matchups Preview
2 weeks ago, the world was privy to one of the all time fantasy stinkers, as Rex Grossman went 14-37 for 144 yards with no TDs, 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles, single-handedly destroying many a week 6 fantasy matchup. The Bears won thanks to the self destruction of the Arizona Cardinals offense, pure and simple. I'm of the belief that the Bears offense clearly isn't as bad as it was 2 weeks ago, and yet I also don't believe they are quite as good as they were the first 5 weeks. Of course my beloved 49ers made Damon Huard look like the coming of...well anybody but Damon Huard.
Coming off the bye, I'm not going to address individual matchups. You may be asking yourself why I would that when this is titled Matchups Preview. Well, changes appear to be brewing in the kitchen. Mike Nolan has said that the team will be evaluating everybody on the defensive side of the ball and we may see new personnel and new packages and schemes to try and bring down that 32 point per game average. People have been calling for the team to switch to a 4-3 defensive set for some time now. Will we finally see that?
After Grossman's struggles in Week 6, expect to see a healthy dose of Thomas Jones this week. If things get out of hand we may get an un-welcome dose of Cedric Benson. If they do decide to go vertical, let's just hope the 49ers secondary gets physical and pops the Bears in the mouth.
Coming off the bye, I'm not going to address individual matchups. You may be asking yourself why I would that when this is titled Matchups Preview. Well, changes appear to be brewing in the kitchen. Mike Nolan has said that the team will be evaluating everybody on the defensive side of the ball and we may see new personnel and new packages and schemes to try and bring down that 32 point per game average. People have been calling for the team to switch to a 4-3 defensive set for some time now. Will we finally see that?
After Grossman's struggles in Week 6, expect to see a healthy dose of Thomas Jones this week. If things get out of hand we may get an un-welcome dose of Cedric Benson. If they do decide to go vertical, let's just hope the 49ers secondary gets physical and pops the Bears in the mouth.
49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Offensive Matchups Preview
Whenever I read about the game-day matchups in the San Francisco Examiner on Friday, I see RB Frank Gore vs. MLB Brian Urlacher or QB Alex Smith vs. SS Todd Johnson. While I see the point of the 1-on-1 matchup, a lot of times it just doesn't apply. Obviously a WR vs. CB is logical. But I plan on exploring unit matchups such as running game vs. defensive line or Alex Smith vs. Bears secondary. I just want to mix in traditional analysis with some less utilized analysis. Additionally, while I'm getting the hang of things, I will not be looking at every potential matchup in the game, but rather a couple of the more important matchups.
Alex Smith vs. Bears Secondary: If the Bears were at full health this would be a bit of a mismatch. Mike Brown is as much the heart and soul of this defense as Brian Urlacher. Ricky Manning has put together an impressive season in spite of some off the field issues. If Manning joins Brown on the sideline tomorrow Smith might actually have a chance to make some plays. This will be the Bears first full game without Brown, so we'll see if the bye week allowed them to move past the injury. I believe the Bears are professional enough to move past it, however the drop off talent provides a potential for the 49ers offense to come out with some confidence.
49ers running game vs. Bears D-line/Linebackers: The o-line sees the return of Jonas Jennings are Larry Allen, a.k.a the entire left side of the line. Seeing a the unit together for the first time since week 1 will be a welcome sight. While they can't stop Frank Gore from fumbling the ball, they should be able to give him holes to bounce through. While they may not get 100 yards out of Gore, the 49ers are gonna need him to pound through those holes to wear down the defense, draw in the secondary and open up the play-action.
Alex Smith vs. Bears Secondary: If the Bears were at full health this would be a bit of a mismatch. Mike Brown is as much the heart and soul of this defense as Brian Urlacher. Ricky Manning has put together an impressive season in spite of some off the field issues. If Manning joins Brown on the sideline tomorrow Smith might actually have a chance to make some plays. This will be the Bears first full game without Brown, so we'll see if the bye week allowed them to move past the injury. I believe the Bears are professional enough to move past it, however the drop off talent provides a potential for the 49ers offense to come out with some confidence.
49ers running game vs. Bears D-line/Linebackers: The o-line sees the return of Jonas Jennings are Larry Allen, a.k.a the entire left side of the line. Seeing a the unit together for the first time since week 1 will be a welcome sight. While they can't stop Frank Gore from fumbling the ball, they should be able to give him holes to bounce through. While they may not get 100 yards out of Gore, the 49ers are gonna need him to pound through those holes to wear down the defense, draw in the secondary and open up the play-action.
49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Injury Preview
After watching the Beavers of Oregon State knock off USC, one would think ANYTHING is possible...meaning HERE COME THE 49ERS! Well not quite. This year's USC team is certainly a notch below the last few editions and they were at Corvallis. This 49ers team will be going into the much-vaunted Soldier Field and will be facing a defense that is great (although not necessarily an all-time great as many analysts make it out to be...more on that later).
Injuries
49ers - Probable: Walt Harris (Hamstring); Jonas Jennings (Hand); Larry Allen (Knee); Bryant Young (Back)
Questionable: Taylor Jacobs (Hamstring)
Out: Vernon Davis (Leg)
Bears - Probable: Ricky Manning, CB (Hamstring)
Questionable: Mark Bradley,WR (Ankle); Chris Harris, FS (Quadricep); Leon Joe, LB (Hamstring); Adewale Ogunleye, DE (Hamstring)
Out: Mike Brown, FS (Foot)
Analysis
While any sane person would never wish ill-will on an opponent, for once, the 49ers are in the better position in terms of injuries. The team will be getting back the entire right side of their offensive line, no small boon even before recognizing the talent of Jennings and Allen. Facing off against the Bears defense with a completely healthy o-line (unfortunately not counting Jeremy Newberry amongst them) is HUGE for this team to have a chance at hanging around in this one.
I normally wouldn't include a player on the IR list (Mike Brown), but I believe this is a huge injury that provides one more opportunity for the 49ers to have a chance at making this respectable and possibly I repeat possibly having a chance to pull the monstrous upset of the Monsters of the Midway.
Injuries
49ers - Probable: Walt Harris (Hamstring); Jonas Jennings (Hand); Larry Allen (Knee); Bryant Young (Back)
Questionable: Taylor Jacobs (Hamstring)
Out: Vernon Davis (Leg)
Bears - Probable: Ricky Manning, CB (Hamstring)
Questionable: Mark Bradley,WR (Ankle); Chris Harris, FS (Quadricep); Leon Joe, LB (Hamstring); Adewale Ogunleye, DE (Hamstring)
Out: Mike Brown, FS (Foot)
Analysis
While any sane person would never wish ill-will on an opponent, for once, the 49ers are in the better position in terms of injuries. The team will be getting back the entire right side of their offensive line, no small boon even before recognizing the talent of Jennings and Allen. Facing off against the Bears defense with a completely healthy o-line (unfortunately not counting Jeremy Newberry amongst them) is HUGE for this team to have a chance at hanging around in this one.
I normally wouldn't include a player on the IR list (Mike Brown), but I believe this is a huge injury that provides one more opportunity for the 49ers to have a chance at making this respectable and possibly I repeat possibly having a chance to pull the monstrous upset of the Monsters of the Midway.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Weekly Layout
The first thing I want to do is provide a layout of what will appear on this website. I don't claim to have any insight into the organization, or a contact that provides me with inside info...at least not yet. The hard data I provide is going to be culled from throughout the World Wide Web, primarily from Bay Area newspapers, the 49ers website and other prominent websites. Nothing earth shattering you can't find on your own, but I'd like to be able to bring it all together here. So here's what you'll find:
- Injury Reports - The usual list of probables, questionables, etc... combined with analysis on if they really won't play and the affect that will have on the tea
- Game Day Preview - Address the various matchups issues. And not necessarily "Frank Gore vs. Brian Urlacher." I'd rather address something like QB vs. Secondary or RB vs. Linebackers. This is such a team-oriented sport that there are very few times that you can address a 1-on-1 matchup without considering other players influence.
- Game Recap - I won't simply look at the good OR the bad. I'll address both with some sense of balance. I've seen too many websites that are too harsh or "drinking too much of the Kool-Aid." I love the 49ers and I realize they have many issues to address, but also have made great strides in certain areas
- Position-by-Position Analysis - This will happen more randomly, often based on issues that have come up (injury , demotion, etc.)
- Offseason Issues - I'll address free agency, retirements, trades, the draft and minicamp and give my own personal analysis.
- Outside news articles - I'm slowly becoming a fan of footballoutsiders.com among other websites. I'll post any interesting outside analysis if I feel it's pertinent.
Welcome
I'll go into more depth later, but for now I've been a 49ers fan since I was a kid growing up in Las Vegas in the mid 80s. Clearly I jumped on the bandwagon, but what's a 6 year old with no NFL affiliation supposed to do? In the 20+ years since I've remained a fan so I think I've earned my stripes.
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