Updated playoff picture

With Week 15 complete for the NFC, let's take a look at the current playoff picture, overall and where the 49ers fit in. First some of the major happenings that affected the post season picture:

Chicago Bears - In spite of blowing a 14 point lead, they held on to edge the Bucs, thus clinching the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints - In spite of a shocking loss to the Redskins, they clinched the South with the Panthers annihilation at the hands of the Steelers.
Dallas Cowboys - Clinched a playoff spot with their win combined with Carolina and the Giants losing.
Philadelphia Eagles - Moved into prime position for a wild card berth by beating the Giants. If they win their last 2 they'll win the East.

YOUR San Francisco 49ers
On the outside looking in, the 49ers face an interesting next two weeks. They could win the division if they win their next two and Seattle loses their next two. However, the wild card is a much more interesting picture.

The Giants and Falcons are both 7-7. The Giants face a tough two weeks against New Orleans and at Washington, while the Falcons face Carolina at home and Philadelphia on the road. It is entirely possible both teams lose at least one of their remaining two games. The problem for the 49ers is that if the Giants finish 8-8, they'll hold the conference record tie-breaker over San Francisco.

If Atlanta finishes 8-8, they'd be 6-6 in conference, same as the 49ers. The next tiebreaker is record versus common opponents, minimum of four. By the end of the season they'll have faced 4 similar opponents (Arizona, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia). If both are 8-8, the 49ers will be 2-3, while the Falcons will be either 2-3 or 1-4. If they're still tied there, strength of victory, followed by strength of schedule are the next two tiebreakers.

Finally, San Francisco is tied with the Carolina, Green Bay, Minnesota and St. Louis. The 49ers hold tiebreakers over Minnesota (head-to-head) and St. Louis (divisional record). If Carolina wins their remaining two they'll hold the tiebreaker for record against common opponent, while Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Francisco.

So what does all this mean? Well first, who'd have thought that going into week 16 we'd be discussing potential playoff scenarios for the 49ers? I said at the beginning of the year I'd be happy with 6-10. If they play well these last two games but lose both I still can consider this year a very big step forward. That doesn't mean I'll be happy with the finish but I can accept it.

More importantly, the team has two very tough opponents left, at home against Arizona and at Mile High against Denver. Arizona has been playing well as of late and the Broncos look to be fighting for their playoff lives in week 17. Of course if they don't show up this Sunday this will all be for naught. So we'll just have to take it one week at a time. Either way it'll be fun.