THE 49ers Blog

WE'VE MOVED

2006-12-22T19:13:00.000-08:00

No, not the 49ers. This blog was only meant as a temporary home, and so after a brief stay at blogspot, this blog has joined Sports Blog Nation and now resides at http://www.ninersnation.com. I feel this will be a much better option for interaction. SB Nation has an option where visitors to the site can post diaries, which means you guys can get your insight published a little more prominently than just in an open thread. If you have something particularly insightful, I have the option of pulling it up to the main screen for all to see more prominently.

So thanks for your visits and I appreciate all the comments. We've already for a few people registered at Niners Nation so feel free to join in (it's free).

Why Not Us???

2006-12-19T16:05:00.000-08:00

The 49ers may be two games out with two game to go, but it's not like the Seahawks are grabbing the bull by the horns when it comes to locking up this division. Dan Arkush of Pro Football Weekly points out that the 49ers have momentum on their side, and considering how bad the NFC has become, why not the 49ers as Western division champs?

Pro Bowl Rosters - Larry Allen left out or not??

2006-12-19T14:01:00.000-08:00

The NFL released their Pro Bowl Rosters for the annual exhibition in Hawaii. Obviously Frank Gore made it, but I'm a little confused about another 49er. 49ers.com says that Larry Allen made the team, but the nfl.com and espn.com roster lists don't mention him. Before visiting the 49ers website I was going to say I was disappointed Allen didn't make considering the job he's done on the offensive line since coming back from injury. But I guess that doesn't matter anymore.

Additionally, Walt Harris is a first alternate and Bryant Young is a second alternate. If any corrections are made I'll post it.

***EDITOR'S NOTE*** - ESPN DID IN FACT CORRECT THEIR ARTICLE AND LARRY ALLEN IS NOW LISTED WITH THE OFFENSIVE GUARDS

Rookie report

2006-12-18T13:59:00.000-08:00

I'm planning on putting together my own report on the 49ers draft class of 2006, but in the meantime Kevin Lynch has a nice piece about them at the Chronicle. While there have been struggles, this could turn into a decent class for the 49ers with 3 starters (Davis, Lawson and Oliver) and a handful creating needed depth (Robinson, Hudson, Walker and Williams).

It is just as interesting to look at where the 2005 draft class is now. You're getting significant contributions from Smith, Gore, Baas, Snyder and Fields, while Estes and Bajema have stayed on as backups. I definitely plan on doing a more in-depth analysis, particularly where it could lead in the 2007 draft.

Updated playoff picture

2006-12-17T19:04:00.000-08:00

With Week 15 complete for the NFC, let's take a look at the current playoff picture, overall and where the 49ers fit in. First some of the major happenings that affected the post season picture:

Chicago Bears - In spite of blowing a 14 point lead, they held on to edge the Bucs, thus clinching the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints - In spite of a shocking loss to the Redskins, they clinched the South with the Panthers annihilation at the hands of the Steelers.
Dallas Cowboys - Clinched a playoff spot with their win combined with Carolina and the Giants losing.
Philadelphia Eagles - Moved into prime position for a wild card berth by beating the Giants. If they win their last 2 they'll win the East.

YOUR San Francisco 49ers
On the outside looking in, the 49ers face an interesting next two weeks. They could win the division if they win their next two and Seattle loses their next two. However, the wild card is a much more interesting picture.

The Giants and Falcons are both 7-7. The Giants face a tough two weeks against New Orleans and at Washington, while the Falcons face Carolina at home and Philadelphia on the road. It is entirely possible both teams lose at least one of their remaining two games. The problem for the 49ers is that if the Giants finish 8-8, they'll hold the conference record tie-breaker over San Francisco.

If Atlanta finishes 8-8, they'd be 6-6 in conference, same as the 49ers. The next tiebreaker is record versus common opponents, minimum of four. By the end of the season they'll have faced 4 similar opponents (Arizona, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia). If both are 8-8, the 49ers will be 2-3, while the Falcons will be either 2-3 or 1-4. If they're still tied there, strength of victory, followed by strength of schedule are the next two tiebreakers.

Finally, San Francisco is tied with the Carolina, Green Bay, Minnesota and St. Louis. The 49ers hold tiebreakers over Minnesota (head-to-head) and St. Louis (divisional record). If Carolina wins their remaining two they'll hold the tiebreaker for record against common opponent, while Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Francisco.

So what does all this mean? Well first, who'd have thought that going into week 16 we'd be discussing potential playoff scenarios for the 49ers? I said at the beginning of the year I'd be happy with 6-10. If they play well these last two games but lose both I still can consider this year a very big step forward. That doesn't mean I'll be happy with the finish but I can accept it.

More importantly, the team has two very tough opponents left, at home against Arizona and at Mile High against Denver. Arizona has been playing well as of late and the Broncos look to be fighting for their playoff lives in week 17. Of course if they don't show up this Sunday this will all be for naught. So we'll just have to take it one week at a time. Either way it'll be fun.

A healthy dose of crow baby!

2006-12-14T21:57:00.000-08:00

I am MORE than happy to admit that I was wrong in my prediction. But this was certainly a tale of 2 games. Prior to the deep ball to Battle at the end of the 3rd quarter, Alex Smith couldn't get anything going. From that point forward, the 49er offense was absolutely on fire. Frank Gore blew up in the 4th quarter, Alex Smith went to his primary weapons and the 49ers shocked the Seahawks. I thought I was being a realist in not expecting a great showing. I'm glad to say this team proved me wrong big time. They lose Eric Heitman to a broken leg, but gutted out a very tough win. This may be the ugliest 24-14 win you'll ever see, but the W is what counts.

The Good

The offense blew up in the 4th quarter as the running and passing games clicked.
While aided by the elements, the defense stepped up in spite of a rash of injuries

The Bad

If you throw out the score, there was plenty to complain about. HOWEVER, this game was too much fun to do any complaining. Sometimes you just have to sit back and enjoy what's given to you

The Future
The team gets rewarded with a few extra days to prep for Arizona at home next week. In week 1 the 49ers hung tough but couldn't spoil the Cardinals home opener in their new stadium. Since then the Cardinals have been a disappointment while the 49ers have shocked many. A win here and the 49ers guarantee themselves a 7-9 season. Combine it with a Seattle loss to San Diego and the 49ers will have something to play for in week 17 for the first time in several years.

One additional note on this game: While the St. Louis win was nice and every other win counts equally, this was my favorite game/win of the year. The 49ers snuck up on the Rams, the Vikings, Lions and Raiders are not so good and the win over Seattle at home could be in part due to the Seahawks injuries at the time. This time, there are no excuses. There was bad weather but that affected both teams. Seattle had San Francisco on the ropes on offense but couldn't put them away. Now let's see what this team can do the last 2 weeks of the year.

40+ mph winds expected tonight - in a related noted, Frank Gore and Shaun Alexander expect to combine for 117 carries!

2006-12-14T11:46:00.000-08:00

Lock down the ramparts and hide in your basement, because it could be a wild game tonight. A big storm is coming to Seattle leading to 40+ mph winds with gusts up to 65 mph and a high wind warning in effect. Some of you may remember the game in Chicago last year that saw winds gusting at 47 mph. For those that don't remember, Cody Pickett was 1-for-13 for 28 yards and passes and field goal attempts were flying every which way. It should make for an interesting game tonight.

Week 15 preview - 49ers @ Seahawks

2006-12-13T19:22:00.000-08:00

I think I've made it pretty clear that I don't have a good feeling about this game. The offense might get some things done, but the Seahawks are well overdue for an offensive explosion. Combine that with a 49ers defense that is absolutely decimated on defense and it does not bode well for a road game in Seattle.

Best Case Scenario (Maybe even a little unrealistic)
49ers 31 - Seahawks 17: The Seahawks struggle in getting the offense going yet again, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis continue to connect and develop a chemistry while Frank Gore blows through the Seattle defense. With the receiving corp struggling, the Smith-Davis duo could prove huge the rest of the way. A lack of Darrell Jackson's big play ability makes the Seahawks one dimensional. The patchwork 49ers defense somehow performs a miracle and contains Seattle.

Worst Case Scenario
Seahawks 48 - 49ers 6: The Seahawks offense clicks on all cylinders. Hasselbeck spreads the wealth without Darrell Jackson and Shaun Alexander rolls over the depleted 49ers defense. The defense is down to 3rd and 4th string corners and while they put forth the effort, the results are not so good. Due to falling behind big early, the Seahawks defense stacks the box against Gore and tees off on Alex Smith. The offense just can't get going.

Prediction
Seahawks 42 - 49ers 17: I think the 49ers can get some offense going but they can't hang with the high-flying Seahawks. The team has struggled the last few weeks but been competitive (excluding the 2nd half of the Saints game) and I think the struggles will really catch up this week.

2nd Injury update

2006-12-13T12:34:00.000-08:00

A few big things I either overlooked yesterday, or are new today per the Chronicle's new report.

Donald Strickland is out for the year due to a sprained MCL, but definitely wants to come back next year.
Sammy Davis was placed on the IR yesterday due to a thigh injury.
Ulbrich is questionable, although he has practiced. Jay Foreman will see some action and would probably start if Ulbrich can't go tomorrow.

If Spencer can't play tomorrow, the secondary will end up being a hodge-podge of assorted parts. BJ Tucker and Marcus Hudson will get playing time if Spencer can't go, which only further increases my worries about this game. A respectable showing by the defense would do wonders for the mental state of this team. A worst case scenario would see the team's secondary get shredded while Alexander runs all over. A best case scenario would see the youngsters racing all over the field making plays and playing with a fire some of the veterans might be losing as the season winds down.

More in the preview tomorrow.

Injury Report

2006-12-12T13:46:00.000-08:00

It's been rough-going the last couple of weeks with the injuries piling up as the team has been struggling.

Adam Snyder is out for Thursday's game due to his knee issues
Eric Johnson and Derek Smith will get in individual workouts and hopefully show enough progress to play this week. Even if Johnson is healthy, I'd expect to see a lot of Vernon Davis after his solid performance this past week. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
Shawntae Spencer is supposed to practice today and is listed as questionable. Getting Spencer back would be huge for the secondary, particuarly considering the aerial attack the Seahawks bring to the table.
Donald Strickland is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. He's been solid as he's been getting a lot of PT due to injuries. If they can have Strickland and Spencer on the field the secondary will have a fighting chance

ESPN.Com Coaches Grades

2006-12-12T10:40:00.000-08:00

Well this is certainly timed well. ESPN has their coach ratings, voted on by the general public. On the season, Mike Nolan's approval average rests at 86%, while the current week has him at 65%. His lowest rating of the year was 50% following the loss to the Bears. Although I am critical of aspects of his coaching, I certainly approve of him as a head coach. Like Alex Smith he's learning on the job and will only get better. He's not perfect but at least he's not Dennis Erickson!

Mike Nolan Analysis

2006-12-11T18:50:00.000-08:00

First off, I want it to be known that I'm not looking to try and get Nolan fired. I simply take issue with his decision-making and game management abilities and I know I can't be the only one.

Clock Management
Numerous halves have ended with the 49ers squandering field position, time and timeouts. I recall a game in which the 49ers had the ball and looked to be running out the clock. Next thing you know a timeout is called, followed by a run up the middle to run out the half. The only explanation is that he thought he could get something done, but then decided to just end the half instead of potentially turning the ball over and getting an INT run back for a touchdown. Nonetheless this type of scenario has played out too many times.

Use of Timeouts
Against the Saints, the 49ers ran out of their allotted timeouts in each half with over 10 minutes left in the halves. They've had to call timeouts numerous times when they've had improper personnel on the field. In the Saints game the timeouts really didn't mean much, considering they got blown out in the second half. However, if this team is going to improve, they really need to make better use of their timeouts.

Game-time Personnel Decisions
This one bugs me because it seems like something a head coach should be in total control of and keep straight. During the Saints game it was 4th and 1 and the Saints elected to go for it. The 49ers had to call timeout because they had the improper personnel package on the field. The problem wasn't that they had their punting unit out there. The problem was that they had a combination of personnel from their 4th down defense and their punting unit on the field at the same time. That's simply unacceptable.

Solution?
Mike Singletary is currently assistant head coach while focusing on the defense. He is certainly one of the rising stars in the league and will likely get a head coaching job in the near future. While I love having him in the organization, I think the team needs some sort of assistant head coach for quality control, if you will. Prior to becoming the Ravens offensive coordinator, Jim Fassel was a general assistant to Brian Billick. I believe the 49ers could use a veteran former coach that has been around the block to assist Mike Nolan. Mike Nolan has done a great job bringing in talent and motivating his players. However, his game management definitely leaves something to be desired. I think a veteran assistant could give Nolan insight
and help him develop as a head coach, much like coaches help players develop into their talents.

Mike Nolan clearly has what it takes to be a success in this league. While we spend all our time worrying about the development of Alex Smith or Manny Lawson or Vernon Davis, it is of equal importance that we consider the development of Mike Nolan. When you've got a young coach working with young players, it really is a team effort in improving. Even if the team doesn't win another game, Mike Nolan has 3 opportunities left this year to improve and build more for next year.

Some ugh mixed with only a little silver lining

2006-12-10T20:21:00.000-08:00

Well that certainly wasn't the prettiest game. A win would have kept the team 1 game back of the last wild card spot and 2 back of Seattle with their upcoming Thursday night matchup. Instead they're 2 back of the wild card and 3 back of Seattle with 3 games remaining. So needless to say this loss unofficially ended the 49ers playoff hopes, leaving only the faintest of hopes.

The Good

Vernon Davis came up big with 1 TD, had another big catch called back on a holding penalty and was open on the interception in the end zone. We'll see if he can continue to develop in the final 3 games.
Frank Gore had a big game on the ground excluding the fumble.
Alex Smith did manage to connect with Davis and Bryant on big plays for the first time in some time.

The Bad

Alex Smith really struggled for a lot of the game and made too many mental mistakes. While he looked good late in the game he appeared to regress for much of the game.
Frank Gore had a bad fumble deep in 49er territory, although the defense held the Packers to only a field goal.

The Other

I'm not really sure where to put the defense but considering some of the wide open Packer receivers, we'll go with bad. Favre looked good, but the defense kept the team in it for much of the time. In spite of some struggles, the defense has done relatively well considering how bad they looked early on and how little depth they have.

The Future
The team faces a short week before heading into Seattle. A Seattle win would officially clinch the division. While I like the opportunity of playing spoiler, I have a bad feeling about this game. Seattle hasn't completely jelled since the return of Alexander and Hasselbeck and I really think this could be the week. I could see a 42-17 type win for Seattle. Hopefully I'm wrong and the 49ers step up. We shall see. Injury updates to come.

TD GORE

2006-12-10T14:56:00.000-08:00

After a mistake filled first half, the 49ers have cut the deficit to 4 points with Frank Gore's TD. The defense wasn't perfect in the first half, but they kept the offense in the game and they finally got a big play from Antonio Bryant to get them deep in Green Bay territory. We'll see what the rest of the game will bring.

Playoff Implications baby

2006-12-10T09:44:00.000-08:00

With the crappiness of the NFC this year, here's how it shakes down. If the 49ers win today, next week game has huge implications for a team trying to shock the world and make the playoffs. If the 49ers lose today, next week's game is just about meaningless. Pretty simple really.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 31 Packers 3 - Favre continues to tarnish his legacy throwing 3 picks while Ahman Green gets nothing going on the ground. The Packers try and stack the line against Gore but Smith is able to make them pay with a couple long touchdowns, while Gore still gets his yards.

Worst Case Scenario
Packers 31 49ers 6 - Favre is able to string together some magic in his potential last game in the Bay Area. He throws 3 TDs and only one pick while Ahman Green rushes for over 100 yards. Alex Smith continues to struggle and Frank Gore can't get anything with 8 Packers stacked in the box.

Prediction
I'm gonna go with 49ers 27 Packers 14 - I'd expect the Packers to stack the box so Alex Smith is gonna HAVE to beat them. Any running back will struggle when it's 7 or 8 on 1. If Smith can beat them deep once, that'll force the Packers to play a little more honest.

Parrish Waived, Smith and Snyder Out

2006-12-05T21:16:00.000-08:00

Well certainly a couple of big injuries in Sunday's game.

Derek Smith has a strained hamstring
Adam Snyder sprained his ankle and MCL

With Smith's injury the 49ers signed LB Jay Foreman. The team made room for Foreman by waiving veteran Tony Parrish. It's tough to see a veteran like Parrish get dumped, but sometimes you just have to cut bait and move on. Foreman was let go by the Raiders to start the season but he put up good numbers in 2002 and 2003 with 107 and 101 solo tackles respectively.

Initial reports had Smith and Snyder potentially being out for the year, but it appears they should only miss this week. Certainly key for the team's playoff hopes.

Just happy to be there???

2006-12-05T11:11:00.000-08:00

I was checking out ESPN's updated power rankings today and a thought crossed my mind. The 49ers were ranked 22nd overall and the comment for them was: "Win or lose, getting to play in games down the stretch that actually mean something is going to be good for the development of this young team."

My question is, are you just happy to be watching games with meaning this late in the season? Even though they've lost back to back games with playoff implications, should we as fans just be happy to even have this opportunity? Personally, I think you can be happy to be there while still getting pissed off at bad losses. It's good to be playing meaningful games, but that's no excuse for poor play in my opinion.

Thoughts?

Mike Nolan's Game Management

2006-12-04T15:16:00.000-08:00

I think this is something that I'll address in more detail when ninersnation.com launches in the coming weeks, but I've been thinking about it for much of this season and think it's something worth discussing.

Nolan and his staff have proven to be solid evaluators or talent. The team is young but the players Nolan has brought in have started to show their abilities. The problem I've had with Nolan is his in-game management. This would involve two aspects:

Use of timeouts
Use of challenges
Personnel on the field

Yesterday the team used up all their timeouts in both halves with plenty of time to spare. I really don't think it had any effect on the final score as the team never went into a 2-minute offense to tie the game or take the lead. However, this is not the first time Nolan has used up timeouts so quickly and eventually it's really gonna bite this time in the butt in a big game, whether it be next week or next year.

The biggest issue I had yesterday was when the Saints decided to go for it on 4th and inches. The team called timeout due to incorrect personel. If the team's punt return unit had been on the field had been on the field in anticipation of a punt then use the timeout no questions asked. Not the brightest move but not completely inexcusable. However, when you've got part of each unit on the field then there is a problem that I believe falls on the head coach. Coordinators can be blamed but the head coach is the man on the chopping block when it comes to the decisions. Nolan has often had incorrect personnel on the field which leads to undisciplined play and a general air of incompetence.

The team has to make the plays on the field, but sometimes they're not put into a better position for success by the coaching staff. I definitely plan on analyzing this in more detail later.

Speaking of which, does anybody out there have a username/password for Stats, Inc??? I'd love to get a crack at some of the statistics they run but can't gain access.

So THAT'S why he was picked 2nd overall

2006-12-03T13:13:00.000-08:00

People had begun calling Reggie Bush a bust as the 2nd overall pick. Well in singlehandedly beating the 49ers Bush probably quieted those naysayers for now. This game showed the talent Bush has, combined with the mountain still to climb by this 49ers team. Games like this are too be expected by a young team and maybe it's good that they bring the fans back to earth. Or maybe I'm just trying to excuse this performance.

Anyways, more later.

Halftime: 14-3 Saints

2006-12-03T11:35:00.000-08:00

Well the second half certainly ended on a bad note. Yes, Reggie Bush is extremely talented and has that rare combination of moves that can embarrass defenders. But the 49ers definitely struggled in completing their tackles and in general looked pretty bad in doing so.

In a bit of a surprise, the offensive line has struggled. Alex Smith has been sacked twice and has appeared to be on the run all day. Gore is on pace for 22 carries but this is a game in which he should be on pace for 30-35 at least. The Saints struggle in stopping the run, which would seem to indicate that maybe you should run the ball more. We'll see what the second half brings. If it's more of the first half...well let's just hope it's not.

On a side note, Bill Maas hit the nail on the head: Poor use of timeouts. I don't really think the timeouts affected the score at the moment, but Mike Nolan continues to struggle in this area of coaching. When you've got half your defense and half your special teams on the field, that has to fall on the head coach. Even if he knew what he was calling, he has to communicate it to his specific coordinators/players so they don't have to waste a timeout. It's getting a little frustrating.

1st quarter: 3-0 San Francisco

2006-12-03T10:51:00.000-08:00

Well that was certainly an interesting first quarter of football. I really didn't see a defensive struggle developing. Of course the best way to neutralize a potent offense is to dominate the time of possession and the 49ers did that in the first quarter. Nonetheless a touchdown would have been nice instead of that field goal.

On another note, I've criticized announcers before but I'm willing to acknowledge when a great point is made. Bill Maas noted that in spite of all the trick plays Norv Turner has pulled out, the Saints are still a bad team in defending the run, so why not just line up and pound it up the middle. It's an excellent point and makes perfect sense. I like trick plays but sometimes you don't need to reinvent the wheel. Include some trick plays but you don't need them every drive. Just often enough to know that it's a possibility.

Onto the second quarter with the Saints driving into San Francisco territory.

Week 13 @ New Orleans

2006-12-02T18:08:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the limited number of postings this week. We've finally gotten our year end mostly done so I'll pick it up in the near future. More importantly, I've been picked up by Sports Blog Nation and will be moving to ninersnation.com. The site will launch in the next few weeks, so I'll keep my small but devoted fan base informed!

In the meantime, here's a quick preview for tomorrow's game. Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the game. Your insights are always welcome.

The best case scenario would see the Saints high-powered offense sputter without either Colston or Horn. Brees gets in his attempts but throws at least 3 interceptions. The 49ers offense tears up the Saints secondary, Frank Gore runs wild and the 49ers win 34-10.

The worst case scenario sees the Saints offense continue to roll, while the 49ers are playing catch up all game, effectively removing Frank Gore from the game. The 49ers offense isn't equipped to win a shootout and they lose 41-7.

I fear the worst in this game after blowing the Rams game, but I think Nolan will have everyone's head in the game and ready to make plays. The team seemed fired up after letting last week get away and I think they'll make a statement in rebounding to stay in the playoff race with a 27-17 win. Frank Gore runs wild and the defense stays aggressive ALL 60 MINUTES!

John York - Incompetent or just plain stupid?

2006-11-30T08:45:00.000-08:00

I won't be naive and pretend to be shocked by this. However it seems like every day York is associated with something more stupid than the day before. I'd like to do a full analysis of the guy but it would change every day with another example of his incompetence as an NFL owner. Makes you appreciate that he put Nolan in charge of EVERYTHING on the field.

Raised Expectations

2006-11-27T21:47:00.000-08:00

Gwen Knapp made an excellent point in her column today. Yesterday's loss, while difficult, showed the strides this team had made in terms of perception. A month ago this team was getting crushed by Chicago and Kansas City and they were called a doormat by many. A month later, the Rams "shocked" the 49ers.

Perception doesn't necessarily win football games in terms of Xs and Os. However, it gives a team confidence that can help a team rise up on the field. Swagger can't replace a good defense or a solid running game, but it can certainly enhance both.

In spite of this loss, I feel the 49ers are slowly developing a swagger. There are tough games left and they could face a let down (particularly this Sunday). However, I think this team is on the way back to the proverbial mountain top, having made leaps and bounds up to this point.

2nd, 3rd and 4th guessing?

2006-11-26T17:46:00.000-08:00

I was over at the Chronicle's website and they made note of how people could question Nolan's 4th and inches call at their blog. There are two sides to every story. Personally, I would have gone for it, although that's as much from playing too much Madden, as opposed to real strategy. So let's look at the consequences of going for it on 4th and inches:

If they convert this game is over, plain and simple. Maybe the Rams get the ball back, but assuming the 49ers only get a field goal the Rams probably have no timeouts left with under 3 minutes to go.
If they don't convert, the Rams have to get into field goal position from their own 7 yard line. Of course the way the 49ers conservatively played defense on the final drive, they probably would move into field goal position, and Wilkins is money indoors.

Personally, I don't believe this decision made or broke the game for the 49ers. Turnovers and a weak defense on the final drive did it.

The Good

Frank Gore, and in turn the offensive line, continue their domination. Even when Gore was off the field, Hicks was able to make some big gains behind a surging offensive line. When Frank Gore gets his Pro Bowl invite, he better buy the offensive line, particularly Larry Allen, something real nice.
Joe Nedney didn't miss any field goals, so after last week that's an improvement, although he only had one attempt.
Prior to the last drive, the defense looked great again. With all the offensive mistakes, St. Louis could have easily won by a lot more.

The Bad

Turnovers hurt the team, plain and simple. Smith had 2 interceptions and Battle fumbled a punt return. This team is not quite good enough to overcome so many mistakes.
The final drive drove me absolutely crazy. When a defense (or any part of the team, for that matter) has been successful playing a specific way (aggressive in this case), wouldn't it make sense to continue to play that way. Marc Bulger is an accurate passer with great weapons. After the Rams converted for their first 1st down of the drive, wouldn't you bring back the aggressiveness? It's just frustrating because the defense had stepped up for 56 minutes and taken care of business, and in the last 4 minutes they let it slip away. It's just frustrating. This is definitely something that will need to be addressed. Fortunately it sounds like the players are realizing this right away.

The Future

The 49ers head to New Orleans next week in a key conference battle with playoff implications. The 49ers are still only a game back in the wildcard race, and could remain a game out if the Packers upset Seattle. Hopefully the team will forget this week's loss and bring their A-game next Sunday. The defense will face its stiffest test in some time as Drew Brees is making a case to start the Pro Bowl. The good news is that the 49ers still get to fight for a playoff berth. It certainly should be interesting.

Damn

2006-11-26T12:57:00.000-08:00

In my midseason predictions I said next week at New Orleans would result in the first heartbreaking loss of the season. Turns out I was a week off. I've never been a fan of running prevent style defenses late in the game to protect the lead. Aggressiveness had been the reason this defense had shown success the last month. They should have continued to be aggressive. Maybe they give up the big play but I don't really think they would have, considering they'd contained the big play for a month. You gotta go with what brought you to the dance.

I'm not exactly in the mood to review this game and look to next week, so I'll be back later with the wrap up of the game.

4th and inches

2006-11-26T12:44:00.000-08:00

I'll just say initially I wanted to see Nolan go for it. Worst case you don't get it and St. Louis has the ball DEEP in their own territory. However, they would only need a field goal so the field goal is practically cut in half. I would have had no problem with going for it on 4th down, but I'll take a 5 point lead. The defense has a chance to continue to make a name for itself.

And Bryant Young with the sack. THAT is what I'm talking about.

1st half relief?

2006-11-26T11:43:00.000-08:00

In a twist from past weeks, the 49ers should have been down by a lot more after that first half, considering all the mistakes on offense. However, the defense had a tremendous first half in my opinion. They were on the field a little too long and yet they've made big play after big play to contain the Rams for now. Manny Lawson had a phenomenal interception and the defensive line has made several key sacks. Now let's see if the offense (other than Frank Gore) can get its head back in the game.

Spencer Out

2006-11-26T10:02:00.000-08:00

Bay Area native Donald Strickland will make the start. Spencer has had a quiet but very solid season so this could definitely hurt in stopping the Rams air attack. We'll see how Strickland does.

Week 12 Prediction

2006-11-26T01:20:00.000-08:00

John Clayton hit the nail on the head when he said, "They are a team that has surprised everybody with their 5-5 start, yet it's not out of the question for them to lose 41-10 in St. Louis." The best case and worst case scenario are equally possible in this situation.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 27 - Rams 6: The Rams offensive woes continue as the 49ers defense continues it's superior play. Frank Gore continues his outstanding play and Alex Smith effectively manages yet another victory, as the 49ers pull over .500 and continue their playoff run.

Worst Case Scenario
Rams 38 - 49ers 13: The Rams offense finds itself in an explosion of the former "Greatest Show on Turf." While Frank Gore has 60+ yards rushing, he doesn't dominate and Alex Smith makes too many mistakes.

I predicted a 31-10 loss at midseason. After both teams' recent performances, this is really a tough game to call. The 49ers appear to be playing with a lot of confidence. The Rams are pretty much in the crapper lately, but I see them as a cornered animal ready to snap in defense. I'm gonna go 49ers 24 - Rams 14. I see this game being as much of a statement game as last week. A win here solidifies their confidence and keeps the heat on Seattle.

Week 12 - 49ers @ Rams RANKINGS Preview

2006-11-23T09:58:00.000-08:00

So we approach the next step in determining whether this team can truly contend for the playoffs. While I'm happy they've won 3 straight, it's quite clear that they faced 3 substandard teams. The Vikings and Lions are both average to poor teams. Seattle was being led by draft-bust Seneca Wallace and a very rusty Shaun Alexander.

This week, the 49ers face a reeling, but dangerous, St. Louis Rams team at the Edward Jones Dome. They've lost 5 straight with last week's shutout at the hands of Carolina probably being rock bottom. In my opinion, rock bottom combined with talent makes them very dangerous. A second road win for the 49ers will be quite the task.

As always, rankings are based on Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average):

Rams offense
Total: 11th
Rush: 19th
Pass: 12th

49ers defense
Total: 28th
Rush: 30th
Pass: 29th

Analysis
In spite of being shutout last week by the Panthers, this offense is still as explosive as ever. Torry Holt is long overdue to blow up. I'd expect Steven Jackson to get a lot more than 7 carries, like he did last week. A couple of things worry me. With the injuries to the linebacker corp, if Steven Jackson can get past the front four, the depth isn't there to solidly stop him. The Rams offensive line is banged up so if the Rams were smart, they'd run out as many 3 and 4 receiver sets as possible. The 49ers secondary is relatively weak and most of their success has come against very basic offensive sets. A strong performance by the defense and I think we can finally stop worrying about this unit performing above their heads.

49ers offense
Total: 23rd
Rush: 17th
Pass: 21st

Rams defense
Total: 21st
Rush: 27th
Pass: 17th

Analysis
As we've seen the last few weeks, Frank Gore is going to have to carry this offense, until the passing game can show they are capable of the big play. Alex Smith has effectively managed the game and defenses have respected his potential. However, defenses will soon realize he's not taking many chances and will start to stick 8 men in the box daring Smith to beat them. And of course, a big question is how Antonio Bryant comes out after all the negative publicity. I've got a feeling he's gonna put up big numbers.

Antonio Bryant belligerent? NOOOOOO

2006-11-21T13:09:00.000-08:00

So apparently Antonio Bryant was arrested Sunday night on suspicion of drunken driving, resisting arrest and speeding. Quite the triple crown there. He and Esteban Loaiza may wanna form a Bay Area athletes support group.

Streakin Along

2006-11-20T22:10:00.000-08:00

A lot of interesting info coming down the pipeline about the stadium talks. Also, any of the links that require subscribing are free and will allow you total access to articles at the given newspaper's website.

Hunters Point could still be in play for a new stadium.

This is a full length piece on the breakdown of discussions between the 49ers and the city. With all the new info coming out I think another breakdown is in order. I'll put something together over Thanksgiving.

Ray Ratto can be pessimistic a lot of times. This somehow manages to be upbeat while keeping perspective on the crappy-ness that is the NFC and the West division in particular.

Unfortunately I was at a bar and wasn't getting sound for the game, so I couldn't hear the halftime ceremony, but the muted version looked pretty good. And of course, as I read, John and Denise York getting booed was one of the highlights.

I'm a BIG fan of the suit. The authority figure works.

Gore, Gore, Gore Baby! I was pumped when he selected in the 3rd round and I'm still pumped. I don't have a car or drive, but I like to think I've been driving the Frank Gore bandwagon since that selection.

As long as the defense continues its strong play, this team should remain in contention for a playoff spot

Schedule for the Week

2006-11-20T13:39:00.000-08:00

I'll be rather busy at work the next 3 days so anything posted will be early in the morning or late at night. I'll try and get some clips up later tonight when I get off work from a part time job I do, so that'll be around 10 or 11. Tomorrow night I'll get an early look at the St. Louis game and a look at the idea of a Hunter's Point stadium location. I don't expect anything to be posted Wednesday, but after that we'll return to a regular posting basis.

Forget not getting too excited!

2006-11-19T16:54:00.000-08:00

I was worried I was setting myself up for a letdown today. I figured they had a chance but they would probably let me down. Oh contraire my friends. The defense continued its astounding stretch of performances and Frank Gore had his coming out party. People knew he was good, but setting the franchise record for rushing yards has to have Drew Rosenhaus smiling!

The Good

Frank Gore was just a stud. He ran wild and even had a key catch for a first down late in the game. He made the back breaking long runs and the demoralizing small runs for first down.
Alex Smith continued his tremendous display of game management. He made plays when he needed to and he didn't make any mistakes.
The defense stepped up and shut down the Seahawks for most of the game. Alexander showed rust which certainly helped, however the defense made all the plays it needed to make when it counted
Mike Nolan certainly looked sharp in the suit.

The Bad

Frank Gore's fumble almost cost the team, if not for a defensive stop. Hopefully this is just a hiccup and not return to his early season butterfingers.
After being the MVP of this team for most of the season, Joe Nedney struggled with 2 missed field goals that would have iced the game. Although to be fair, one field goal appeared to be blocked, and the other was a poor hold by Andy Lee.

The Future

St. Louis comes to town hoping to avenge their loss in the 49ers home opener. After getting completely shut down by Carolina they find themselves in 3rd place in a must-win situation if they want to get back in the chase for the division title. Seattle hosts a struggling Green Bay on Monday Night, so the 49ers probably (obviously) want to win this to keep pace with the Seahawks. If Gore can keep up his blistering pace, the team should be able to pull this one out. We'll see if the defense keeps up it's strong play of late.

Out of Market Links

2006-11-19T09:58:00.000-08:00

Here are a couple links I came across using Google News:

A nice little feature from the Seattle Times about the 49ers turnaround this season

Mike Nolan FINALLY gets his wish to wear a suit. But fret not corporate sponsor, there is a Reebok logo on the inside collar.

Week 11 Prediction

2006-11-19T00:43:00.000-08:00

I have to be honest. I came into the season with certain expectations, and after winning their last two games, the 49ers have me throwing those expectations out the window and dreaming of something bigger. And yet at the same time I actually realize there's a very good chance that I'll just be setting myself up for disappointment. But I guess that's part of being a fan. Every so often the team will fulfill your hopes and expectations. When that happens the excitement makes up for all the bad losses.

It looks like one of Alexander or Hasselbeck will play, with it likely being Alexander. I'm going into this game assuming as much.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 31 - Seahawks 13: Alexander shows rust and the Seahawks run game is shut down by the continuing resurgence of the 49ers defense. Seneca Wallace's legs are contained and he doesn't do much damage through the air. Vernon Davis plays and the 49ers air attack resurfaces, as Antonio Bryant has a vintage Jerry Rice-type day on the day the team honors Rice.

Worst Case Scenario
Seahawks 38 - 49ers 6: Alexander blows up in his return with 3+ TDs and the 49ers offense is nonexistent. The only sign of offense, besides Joe Nedney, is Jerry Rice jokingly running a fly pattern during his halftime ceremony.

I'm gonna stick with my midseason prediction of 49ers 21-Seahawks 17. This is the first game of the Mike Nolan with real meaning in terms of postseason implications. A win here puts the 49ers at .500 and a game back of the Seahawks, effectively turning up the heat. Here's hoping the team can step up and make a legitimate statement.

Week 11 vs. Seahawks

2006-11-18T12:45:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the lack of posts the last couple of days. Through next Wednesday will be pretty crazy at work closing out our fiscal year so I'll be posting a little less than normal, although I'll still get up my prediction with best and worst case scenario and also a recap of the game. In the meantime here are some links for the game, mostly from the Niners website, but still some interesting stuff:

Tomorrow marks the return of Julian Peterson

But more importantly, it's day devoted to Jerry Rice!

The Seahawks could be getting their two biggest weapons back tomorrow, although they remain game-time decisions. Gonna make things really interesting.

Some 49er injuries: Gore is probable after the concussion last week, Vernon Davis is now at questionable and looks to be a game-time decision and Mike Adams and Adam Snyder are both questionable after injuries last week.

See you tomorrow with more gameday info.

Also, a big announcement to come in the next few days regarding the website and the future the 49ers fan blog. STAY TUNED!

Updated Power Rankings

2006-11-15T20:01:00.000-08:00

I enjoy checking out the Power Rankings various websites put out when they're assessing the NFL each week, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. So with that in mind, I thought I'd provide the rankings at a variety of websites with their comments, with my comments to follow. Since I'm only quoting a portion of the rankings I don't see any copyright issue. If someone knows differently, please let me know. Thanks.

Football Outsiders' DVOA Power Rankings - #31 - The comments basically state the low ranking is due to their 3 blowout losses and the Rams win losing relevance. However, Schatz states that Football Outsiders have believed the last few weeks show the team building a talent base and showing signs of a return to relevance.

ESPN.com - #22 - "Whatever the 49ers' defense changed the last two weeks, it's working. In their five previous games the 49ers gave up 188 points. In their last two games they've given up just 16."

CBS.Sportsline.com - #24 - "Break up the 49ers. They're on a two-game winning streak. Frank Gore is having a Pro Bowl season."

FOXSports.com - #18 - Paraphrased: "Don't look now, but after 10 weeks, the 49ers are a game under .500 and in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt...If the 49ers can pull the upset off, they'll be a mere game out of first place in the NFC West. Shocking stuff...Sean Payton, Tony Dungy, or Lovie Smith will more than likely win the NFL Coach of the Year award this season, but Mike Nolan belongs in the conversation as well."

Dr. Z @ SI.com - #25 - Briefly discussed the disparity in rushing vs pass completions and then threw out some names

The various rankings show a definite difference of opinion on the the team's current status, in spite of mostly positive comments. Power Rankings are quite subjective so it's not likely this affects the outcome of anything. However, it's nice when the team gets the shoutouts it deserves. Looking at the NFL, my own opinion is that the 49ers are better than the following teams: Arizona, Oakland, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Houston, Washington (now that Campbell's behind the center), Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami and Green Bay.

So in my own power rankings, that would be put the team at #21. That would indicate a team that hasn't reached average, but is certainly showing some potential. The 49ers are no longer a "bad," "doormat" football team. They've turned the corner from bad to question mark. The next step is turning the corner from question mark to "good," or a "playoff contender." Then you become great. For now I'm happy their just moving forward.

Tuesday Injury Report

2006-11-14T11:17:00.000-08:00

After a couple of good weeks injury-wise, the 49ers got a little banged up at Detroit.

Frank Gore had the concussion and while he's expected to miss some practice, Nolan thinks he'll play, mentioning that he only thinks Gore got his "bell rung."
Jonas Jennings had a right shoulder stinger but returned to the game
Mike Adams left the game with a neck strain and his Week 11 status is unknown at this time. He provides good depth with Keith Lewis moved into the starting lineup, so I'll update it later this week.

One bit of good news though, as Nolan thinks there's a good chance Vernon Davis will be back in action this week. If he can get on the practice field and get some reps in, it sounds like he's a likely play.

Late Links

2006-11-13T20:55:00.000-08:00

These are a little late, but when you win, the recaps of the game are always enjoyable to read.

A lot of the articles gave the defense its due for a second straight excellent effort.

Even the most diehard fan would admit the defense was pathetic most of the first half of the season. For now, the D is riding high.

A key to the defense has been the insertion of Keith Lewis into the free safety spot ahead of Mike Adams.

Lewis and Brandon Moore have brought a new energy the team was lacking before. Whatever it takes, a pair of catalysts have been found.

There is plenty more out there but I think these articles cover what needs to be covered without becoming too repetitive.

Look for an injury update tomorrow.

Dare I Say.....Playoff Implications???

2006-11-13T08:29:00.000-08:00

I'll be the first to admit that the 49ers best win this season came against an ok Rams during the home opener. The other 3 wins were against a crappy Raiders team, a Vikings team that is average at best and a bad Lions team. The '85 Bears we are not.

HOWEVER, with the win this week, the 49ers are 4-5 and all of a sudden in the thick of a division race, with the division leader coming to town only 2 games up. Now if the 49ers lay an egg on Sunday just forget everything I'm saying here. However, an upset on Sunday leaves the 49ers 5-5 and one out, as well being in the thick of the wildcard race. I know that I admitted I would be quite happy with 6 wins this year. If you told me they would be 4-5 at this point with an outside shot at winning the division, I would definitely call you crazy. Maybe I'm the crazy one.

The good and the bad

2006-11-12T15:57:00.000-08:00

Wow. This game had a combination of so much good and so much bad that I am torn as to how I feel. I know for sure I'm pumped at back to back wins. Next week's game against Seattle just got bigger, as the 49ers could move to within a game of the Seahawks.

At the same time, the team blew quite a few opportunities to put this game away early. This is the perfect game to use as as a prototype for reviewing the good AND the bad.

The Good

Frank Gore carried the team in the first half, setting the tone with a 61 yard touchdown run on the opening drive. In spite of the concussion, Gore rushed for 159 yards, which helped the 49ers dominate the time of possession 38:49 to 21:11.
Alex Smith did not dominate, but did manage the game effectively.
The defense showed up for the second straight game with a very effective performance.

The Lions failed to establish the running game
Roy Williams got his numbers but he was never allowed to break a big play, while Muke Furrey was practically shut out
The defense got pressure on Kitna with some big sacks.

The team mixed in some trick plays that will get future opponents thinking: Arnaz Battle reverse pass and Michael Robinson lining up as a RB in the shotgun, but taking the ball for the trick "QB draw."
Joe Nedney continues to be absolutely MONEY!

The Bad

The team blew multiple opportunities to put this game away settling for field goals and punts when they should have done a better job of going for the throat. If they do that against many other teams, the 49ers will be walking off the field as losers.
Mike Nolan had a couple curious decisions. For the most part things worked out, but this could lead to trouble in the future.
Hopefully Frank Gore will be ok after a concussion described as "mild" by Nolan.

The Future

The Seahawks come to town in what should be an emotional game, as Jerry Rice will be having his jersey retired. If the 49ers can bottle up that emotion and use it to play a determined game, an upset is very possible. It sounds like Alexander will probably be back next week, while Hasselbeck doesn't feel confident he'll be ready. Seneca Wallace has been very solid in his subbing for Hasselbeck, so the defense will need to make things happen again. No matter what, this team is 4-5 and appears to be turning a corner.

Gore out with concussion

2006-11-12T12:27:00.000-08:00

They just announced that Frank Gore left the game with a concussion. Hopefully Hicks and Robinson can step up because Frank Gore was giving them exactly what they needed.

A questionable Mike Nolan decision has reared its head. He sent out the punting team on 4th down on the Lions 31 yard line. They didn't have enough guys on the field and had to call timeout, after which the field goal team was sent out. Hopefully they won't need the timeout, but doesn't that seem like a given that you'd send out the field goal unit? Confusing couple of decisions there.

Officiating

2006-11-12T11:49:00.000-08:00

I'm not one to complain when call's go the 49ers way, but there has definitely been some shoddy officiating in this game, particularly in reviewing plays. Frank Gore didn't seem to have the first down and Kitna seemed down on the play that saw Spencer absolutely drill him. I'll take it but it definitely should give the league cause to pause.

Reason #1 why I would be a better announcer

2006-11-12T10:42:00.000-08:00

Mike Furrey just got called for illegal motion and Bill Maas and Ron Pitts made a joke about how it looked like Arena Football or Canadian football. Hey geniuses, your game notes probably mentioned that Furrey used to play in the AFL. Maybe then you make a joke that he must have confused the leagues or something. Work on it.

EDITOR'S NOTE: (Reason #2) Hey Bill Maas, maybe you should point out that the Michael Robinson rush wasn't a traditional running back draw. Robinson ALSO played QB (lik Battle) in college and they ran it almost like a QB draw. These are the things I'd like the commentators to point out.

Final Predictions

2006-11-11T13:55:00.000-08:00

A win today would CONTINUE the momentum they started to build last week. Fans are excited again after the demoralizing Bears loss and their first road win would continue to build the excitement. And get people's minds off the stadium stuff.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 31 - Lions 21: I just don't see the Lions offense getting shut down like the Vikings. The Lions have so many more weapons, so I think any kind of win is a best case scenario. If the 49ers are going to win this game, Frank Gore needs to have a big game. The team will need to take a lead and pound the rock with Gore. The best case sees the 49ers offense bounce back with more than a few field goals.

Worst Case Scenario
Lions 45 - 49ers 17: The Lions followup their upset of Atlanta with a big win against a 49ers defense that shows a whole lot of regression. Williams and Furrey run wild with Williams catching 3 TDs and Kevin Jones puts up 100+ yards with a TD. Kitna has no trouble picking apart the 49ers defense, while the 49ers offense continues to struggle.

As per my midseason assessment, my prediction is Lions 34-49ers 24. A win would be huge for confidence in the 2nd half of the season but I think the Lions offense might be too much. While I'm picking the Lions to win, the 49ers are fully capable of winning this game. They just need to avoid some of the mistakes that have hurt them this year.

49ers @ Lions - Week 10 Preview

2006-11-11T13:44:00.000-08:00

Dan Shanoff (formerly ESPN's Daily Quickie) predicted the Lions would win in the "Worst Game of the Week." Looking at some of the other matchups, I could see why a non-fan would see this as potentially the worst game of the week. However, if you're a fan of offense, this could be the most exciting game of the week. The Lions have playmakers all over the field, including Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and Kevin Jones. The 49ers don't have nearly as many established playmakers, but they have guys who are slowly building that kind of reputation.

Defensive Preview
Roy Williams and Mike Furrey vs. 49ers secondary - With Mike Furrey establishing himself as a legit #2 receiver for the Lions, the 49ers will not simply be able to double up on Roy Williams without the thought of Furrey lining up against one-on-one with Walt Harris or Shawntae Spencer. Both have been solid corners, but they'll have to step up their games against this pair of receivers.

49ers defensive front vs. Lions offensive line - The 49ers were finally able to bring pressure against Brad Johnson last week. Jon Kitna seems like a slightly more talented version of Brad Johnson. If the 49ers can successfully bring the pressure and get Kitna off his rhythm they can at least contain the Mike Martz-run offense. Just as importantly, they need to get some pressure to take down Kevin Jones in the backfield. Jones has had a resurgence this year and is a very dangerous weapon for the Lions.

Offensive Preview

49ers Announcement of Move to Santa Clara - Part 2 - The Political Games

2006-11-11T13:30:00.001-08:00

While poking around the Internet yesterday, I came across the news that Dianne Feinstein had brought Mayor Newsom together with John York to discuss the issues at hand. After Mayor Newsom expressing his shock at the 49ers abrupt dismissal of the city, I couldn't help but be slightly amused.

I think the Mayor is a good guy but I don't think a stadium in San Francisco was ever going to get done (obviously easier to say this after the fact). First the Mayor and now Assemblyman Mark Leno are trying to keep the 49ers from using San Francisco in their name. This just seems like political grand standing by both men. It seems like a person's legacy is a huge thing in politics. For the Gav his first legacy was his actions surrounding the gay marriage issue. Now that that has quieted down around here, I believe his "next" legacy is a combination of things. Getting the Olympics in 2016 would seem like the obvious answer to the legacy question and losing a new 49ers stadium might just kill that. However, I think that while the Olympics are a small part of that, the big part is rebuilding Bayview and Hunter's Point. A new stadium would create a rare opportunity to completely rebuild that area of town. Mayor Newsom is a very socially aware mayor and he knows he would leave quite a legacy rebuilding that area.

It remains to be seen how this little soap opera will play out. I really don't see the 49ers staying in San Francisco. They'll build their new stadium and I fully expect them to sell out and make gobs of money. As far as I'm concerned, as long as they stay in the Bay Area I'm fine with it. As long as they are selling out games AND more importantly, on my tv set every Sunday or Monday I'll be happy as a clam.

49ers Announcement of Move to Santa Clara - Part 2 - The Political Games

2006-11-11T13:08:00.000-08:00

49ers Announcement of Move to Santa Clara - Part 1

2006-11-11T12:19:00.000-08:00

Thanks to cbs5.com, I was able to view the complete video of the 49ers press conference concerning their stadium relocation to Santa Clara. Yesterday, news came out that Dianne Fienstein had intervened in trying to get the 49ers and Mayor Newsom to discuss the situation. I don't really see this amounting to anything in terms of stopping the relocation. I'll address the political aspects in part 2.

In addressing the issues at hand, the 49ers were very explicit as to why they were planning this move. Based on my own experiences, it is definitely a tough area in terms of public transit and I can see the infrastructure needs the team pointed out. On the one hand I understand why a city would not want to contribute a large amount of public funds to a stadium project. I am of the opinion that it's the equivalent of lighting money on fire and then flushing it down the toilet.

At the same time, since the 49ers are hoping to privately finance their stadium with the mixed-use facilities (hotels, retail, etc.), they shouldn't have to finance such a large infrastructure rebuilding project. As the team pointed out, the project would require either one of the world's largest parking garages, or somehow putting together a massive public transit project. To put it at it's simplest, a huge parking garage would just be lame. I can see how an NBA team or NHL team would do that, but tailgating is essential to football games.

The team repeatedly drove home the point that the most important issue was increasing the game day experience of their fans, before, during and after the game. This would go hand in hand with the increased revenues a new stadium would provide. Even when the team is struggling, the game day experience can be enough to make you forget those struggles.

The important part of all this is how the fans would react. There are two issues at hand. The first and most important is the fact that John York stated emphatically that the team would not leave the "Bay Area." If the team packed up and left obviously the fan reaction would be quite predictable, so we'll assume that Mr. York is telling the truth.

The second issue is people getting to a Santa Clara stadium versus Candlestick Point. I don't own a car and have made extensive use of Bay Area public transportation. Needless to say, commuting down to the South Bay can be relatively convenient. I've taking the rail down to HP Pavilion and Stanford's old stadium and have had no issues whatsoever. True fans will get to a team's new stadium whatever it takes. However, in this case it's possible that it will become even easier if you take public transportation. One can simply look at the new Arizona Cardinals stadium in Glendale, Arizona and the Lions old Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan. Both are located well outside the city the team is named after and they are able to get fans to come out.

Finally, there is the idea of an emotional attachment to a stadium. Seeing as we are talking about Candlestick/3Com/Monster Park, the only emotional attachment is the idea of this being the place where some great moment's in 49ers history took place. However, great moments occurred at the Boston Garden and they had no problems moving into a new state-of-the-art facility. There will be a new Yankee Stadium as well, and obviously there were some great memories there. The point of this is that people are able to move past emotional attachments when it comes to stadiums. While people may be disappointed the team is moving, I really don't expect someone to chain themselves to Monster Park on moving day.

Feinstein intervenes

2006-11-10T15:08:00.000-08:00

When I get off work I'll post more about everything going on with this, but in the meantime, Senator Dianne Feinstein brought together the York's and the Gav to discuss this whole situation. Maybe she really wants to make the 49ers work or maybe she doesn't wanna blow a shot at hosting the Olympics in her backyard. Who knows. More to come.

49ers Press Conference

2006-11-09T12:41:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately because of work I missed the press conference the 49ers had this morning regarding the stadium. It may be a day before I can check it out online, at which point I'll comment. I've seen various conflicting reports about whether or not the team would consider a move out of the Bay Area. I'd like to see the press conference before addressing this topic. In the meantime, if you feel like commenting on the press conference feel free.

Editor's Note: Mark Kreidler writes quality pieces for ESPN on a wide range of topics. His latest article addresses the upside of this situation for the 49ers. A definite good read.

The Emperor's Pants are down

2006-11-09T09:33:00.000-08:00

Does anyone else think Gavin Newsom was caught with his pants down on this one? A new 49ers stadium was a centerpiece of the city's bid for the 2016 Olympics. I believe they have to submit a key piece of the bid by January. As I recall, the Greek's built a small baseball stadium for the 2004 games and now it sits relatively unused. I don't see San Francisco ending up in the same situation, which probably means no Olympics for them. I have no problem with a city playing hardball in the stadium game, but nonetheless the city has certainly created a bit of a mess for itself.

Santa Clara

2006-11-09T08:35:00.000-08:00

Certainly more to come on this hot topic. I understand wanting to have a new state-of-the-art stadium, especially after seeing the Cardinals new facility. I haven't done enough research on the subject to understand the tie of new revenues to putting a quality product on the field (as seen in baseball). Nonetheless, it'd be nice to have a set home for the forseeable future that doesn't have the world's worst wind tunnels.

Editor's Note: Just saw a similar article at espn.com, and one interesting note: the facility would require one of the biggest parking garages in the world. Having grown up in Las Vegas where the world's biggest hotels were going up every other week, I'm a proponent of world's biggest ANYTHING!

Midseason Assessment

2006-11-08T20:43:00.000-08:00

I'd have preferred to put this out before the first preview of this weekend's matchup. However, instead of giving traditional grades for the various players and units, I'm going to make my predictions for the second half of the season based on performance to date, as well as awards for the second half.

Week 10 - Lion continue to roar after upsetting Atlanta, as 49ers hang tough until fading late.
49ers - 24
Lions - 34

Week 11 - 49ers step up to spring the upset on the day they celebrate the greatest receiver ever
Seattle - 17
49ers - 21

Week 12 - Emotional letdown as the Rams high powered offense overwhelms the inconcistent 49ers defense
49ers - 10
St. Louis - 31

Week 13 - First real heartbreaking loss of the season
49ers - 21
New Orleans - 24

Week 14 - Joe Nedney comes through to continue his virtual MVP season!
Green Bay - 21
49ers - 23

Week 15 - Seattle gets revenge as they have both Alexander and Hasselbeck playing
49ers - 10
Seattle - 41

Week 16 - 49ers get revenge for Week 1 Loss
Arizona - 13
49ers - 27

Week 17 - Denver is competing to get the bye so no sign of the backups in this final matchup
49ers - 17
Denver - 31

Final Record: 6-10

You never want to settle for mediocrity, but 6-10 would be a dramatic improvement for this team and a great building block for the future.

2nd half MVP: Alex Smith - I predict he'll have at least one 4th quarter comeback in the second half with which to cement his immediate future.
2nd half rookie of the year: Vernon Davis - I think he'll show why he's projected to be such a special player
2nd half dog: Kwame Harris - I just think his struggles continue and Adam Snyder will be starting before long

49ers-Lions Rankings

2006-11-08T18:44:00.000-08:00

Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA:

49ers Total Offense: 24
Lions Total Offense: 18

49ers PASSING Offense: 23
Lions PASSING Offense: 13

49ers RUSHING Offense: 21
Lions RUSHING Offense: 18

49ers Total Defense: 31
Lions Total Offense: 18

49ers RUN Defense: 31
Lions RUN Defense: 21

49ers PASS Defense: 29
Lions PASS Defense: 30

This is gonna be a shootout. The Lions roll out the explosive Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, and the resurgent Jon Kitna and Kevin Jones. While the 49ers defense looked great last week, the Lions present a whole other set of issues. More than likely, the offense is simply going to have to put up big numbers. While he missed some practice today, Vernon Davis could be back this week, which would provide Alex Smith with one more weapon for this potential aerial battle.

Season over for Parys Haralson

2006-11-08T08:30:00.000-08:00

Surgery on a torn pectoral muscle has ended rookie Parys Haralson's rookie season. It's unfortunate for any player and hopefully he'll have a full recovery. Haralson joins Jeremy Newberry, Vickiel Vaughan and Andre Torrey on the IR.

Looking at the IR, the 49ers have managed to stay relatively healthy up to this point in terms of season-ending injuries (knock on wood). They lost Larry Allen for a few weeks and Jonas Jennings was banged up, but for the most part they've stayed healthy. Football is such a violent sport, and when the injuries pile up it can be hard to maintain any sort of momentum. For a young team like the 49ers, this momentum is an essential part of the rebuilding process. If they 49ers can stay healthy, it's one more step in getting back to respectability and the playoffs.

Offensive Line - Raiders vs. 49ers...well versus anybody actually

2006-11-08T08:22:00.000-08:00

I actually managed to watch all of Monday Night Football last night. The Raiders so-called "offensive line" provided a performance for the ages. I truly felt bad for Andrew Walter when they went 3 and out on 3 straight sacks. The game really felt like the world's slowest head-on collision. If you look at the Raiders o-line, Robert Gallery was the #2 overall pick while C Jake Grove and Langston Walker were 2nd round picks. The entire line's average age is close to 27, so they're not over the hill but not they're not exactly green rookies. And this year they are abysmal.

What does this have to do with the 49ers? Well I've got two numbers for you: 44 to 18. The Raiders have given up 44 sacks, while the 49ers have given up 18. Alex Smith is clearly a little more mobile than Andrew Walter. We can all agree on that. However, outside of Kwame Harris, I must say I'm quite pleased with the 49ers o-line performance. Adding a Hall of Famer in Larry Allen certainly helps, but the free agent pick ups are gelling with the various draft picks to form a cohesive, solid line.

I'd like to think that at the end of the season, Frank Gore and Alex Smith will do something real nice for the linemen. Solid offensive line help is and will be a key component of their development.

Mike Nolan Thought

2006-11-06T19:17:00.000-08:00

I was listening to the radio on the way home today and a good point was reenforced: Why did Mike Nolan call the timeout at the end of the first half? Minnesota punted with 51 seconds left and on the subsequent play, Frank Gore ran to the left end for 7 yards. It seemed to be a clear sign that they were just gonna run out the half and be done with it. Then he calls a timeout with 18 seconds left. Odd but maybe he just figures why not take a few shots. So the next play: Run up the middle for 3 yards and the final 18 seconds run out. Eh???

Mike Nolan and the player personnel staff have shown themselves to be very good evaluators of talent. However, Mike Nolan's game decisions have been known to leave people shaking their heads. Poorly chosen timeouts...even more poorly chosen situational play-calling...Even sending out the wrong personnel at times. One radio commentator made a good point in saying that maybe Mike Nolan has too much going on in his head. He seems to be a bit of a control freak, just based on what I've seen and heard. Obviously I'm not there every day but it just seems to scream that.

Simply put, while the players have to improve, Mike Nolan ALSO has to improve his game. A combination of player and coaching improvement would be enough to turn this team into a playoff team in the near future.

Monday afternoon injury report

2006-11-06T14:35:00.000-08:00

Not a whole lot to report, which coupled with a win is a very good thing. CB Walt Harris is listed as an early probable for next week after suffering a hip pointer yesterday afternoon. Harris has quietly put together a solid season and is 1 interception away from equaling his career high of 5, achieved in 1997 with the Bears.

11/06 Daily Links - All Defense and Special Teams!

2006-11-06T08:35:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately due to work I can't put in any witty verbage to go along with the clips. But I'll at least let you know basically what the article is (whether it be recap, commentary, etc...) for a few of the links. I'll put more in after work:

Ray Ratto

SF Chronicle Recap

Contra Costa Times seems to think Mike Nolan might stick around. Really?!

Minnesota Star Tribune claims clock shenanigans!

Apparently the 49ers should take what they did yesterday on the road with them. Good call Captain Obvious

The team was psyched to meet the old school 49ers yesterday. I'm still convinced they should always wear the 80s jerseys. Although my personal favorites were the throwbacks they wore in 1994. Big fan of those.

More to come later this afternoon/early evening.

Most exciting 4 field goal game EVER!

2006-11-05T15:57:00.000-08:00

Wow. I'm trying to remember the last time I enjoyed such a low-scoring game this much. I love a good pitchers' duel in baseball and this felt like that. The Vikings defense bounced back, while the 49ers defense finally showed up to play. Both offenses had plenty of opportunities but could not capitalize. There were two plays that were key to winning the game:

Illegal block in the back on Travis Taylor to bring back Chester Taylor's 65 yard TD reception
1) The 49ers not being moved back 5 yards on the potential delay of game; 2)Joe Nedney drilling the 51 yard field goal after his previous make was whistled dead on that play

The Good

Hats off to the defense. Chester Taylor had a solid first half, but the 2nd half saw the 49ers hold Taylor to 35 yards. Brad Johnson did finish 21 of 31 but that resulted in only 136 yards.
Frank Gore falling down in bounds after the 11 yard run at the end of the game shows how smart he really is. So many players go for the extra yard, but Gore fell down even though he didn't have that big a game.
Alex Smith didn't make any mistakes that really hurt. His interception was in Vikings territory and didn't turn into any points

The Bad

After seeing the Patriots spread out their offense and torch the Vikings secondary, Mike Nolan did not seem to take advantage of that apparent weakness. I would have expected the offense to open things up a little more. However, they won and that's really all that matters.

The Future

The 49ers face an explosive Lions offense next week at Ford Field. Roy Williams and Mike Furrey are thriving in the Mike Martz offense. Kevin Jones seems to finally be living up to his 1st round pick billing. Defensively they're not particularly good, which could mean we'll get the exact opposite of today: an ole-fashioned Wild West shootout. Until then, enjoy today's win!

Halftime: 49ers 6 - Vikings 3

2006-11-05T14:15:00.000-08:00

While most everyone enjoys the shootout in football, I'm actually kind of enjoying this game so far. One of the key defensive plays was Bethel Johnson dropping the deep pass, combined with the tripping penalty at the same time. It ended up being a dead play, but it certainly could have been worse.

Offense
As the announcers astutely pointed out, Bryan Gilmore should have been past the first down marker. The running game has not been established yet and the passing game has been tamed more or less.

Defense
It's been an interesting game for the defense. Chester Taylor got his yards and Brad Johnson was 10 for 12 in the half. However, Johnson has only 60 yards and the running defense has been bend but don't break. Throw in the Brad Johnson fumble and the defense rebounded from last week quite admirably.

2nd Half
The team needs to keep plugging away at the run. I think if Gore keeps at it, he'll break through. The front line needs to get a little more pressure on Johnson. As with the running game, if they get the pressure, big plays will come.

"Expert" Predictions

2006-11-05T12:46:00.000-08:00

I like seeing how the so-called experts feel about the matchup. So here's some of the more prominent prognosticators:

ESPN

Vikings: Theisman, Salisbury, Hoge, Jaworski, Schlereth, Allen, Mortensen, Golic, Accuscore (their computer predictor thing)

49ers: Bill Simmons (Sports Guy) Eric Karabell (Fantasy Football Guy)

CBS.Sportsline.com(Don't really know many of these guys, but just gonna plug in last names)

Vikings: Bromberg

49ers: Harmon, Prisco, Judge, Davis, Richard

Interesting dichotomy between the 2 websites. I think this just goes to show this could be a pretty close game that could go either way.

GO 49ERS!

Final Thoughts and Analysis for Week 9

2006-11-05T12:33:00.000-08:00

A win today would be a huge rebound from last week's debacle. The media is reporting doubt eminating from the fans, the team and ownership. Personally, I think Mike Nolan deserves a longer leash because the team is definitely improving. A win this week would quiet the critics for at least another week.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 34 - Vikings 13: I don't see the 49ers NOT giving up a touchdown this week, or most any week really. Even at its best, the defense just isn't that good. Offensively, it's a different story. I think a legitimate best case scenario would see Frank Gore blowing up for 125+ yards with a pair of touchdowns and Alex Smith throwing for 250+ yards with a pair of touchdowns. The defense isn't spectacular, but they take care of business and don't make the offense play catch up.

Worst Case Scenario
Vikings 38 - 49ers 10: The Vikings offense gets back on track as Chester Taylor and Mewelde Moore run all over the 49ers. Brad Johnson picks apart the secondary and the 49ers TD comes in garbage time. Basically a replay of last week.

My prediction is 49ers 27-17. Hopefully the team puts up a hell of a better effort than last week.

Week 9 - 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Defensive Preview

2006-11-05T12:18:00.000-08:00

Rankings - based on Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average)

Vikings Offense - RUN: 25th; PASS: 25th; OVERALL: 24th
49ers Defense - RUN: 31st; PASS: 9th; OVERALL: 31st

So would it be considered a good thing if the Vikings were held under 30 points? The defense has been much maligned this year so they clearly could use a solid performance. Brad Johnson will not be as bad as he was last week. I'd expect a solid but not spectacular performance from him. Chester Taylor is the big X-factor. If he blows up the 49ers are in trouble. If they contain him I think they win this game. Of course watch them stop Taylor and Mewelde Moore blows up. Basically, it comes down to just stopping the running game.

Week 9 - 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Offensive Preview

2006-11-05T10:41:00.000-08:00

Rankings - based on Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average)

Vikings Defense - RUN: 5th; PASS: 10th; OVERALL: 6th
49ers Offense - RUN: 18th; PASS: 19th; OVERALL: 22nd

As long as you don't consider the beating the Patriots laid on Minnesota last Monday, the Vikings defense has been quite good this year, almost among the elite in terms of rankings.

While the 49ers are not the Patriots, they have an offense that has been quite explosive at times. The Vikings gave up some big plays to the Patriots running backs and that is an area the 49ers can match up well. The key will coming down to avoiding turnovers. If Frank Gore can hold onto the ball, this is definitely a defense against which he can make things happen.

If Gore is making things happen and the offensive line is pushing back the Vikings defensive front, Alex Smith can have some time to make things happen through the air. A banged up Vikings defense could be just as key to Alex Smith being successful. Anything that gives him time to throw is a good thing. Smith will be without Vernon Davis for one last week, but hopefully Eric Johnson can step up and make some plays. The 49ers are a team that could be as explosive as anybody when everything is going well. We'll see if they can get something going today.

Week 9 - 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Injury Preview

2006-11-04T21:11:00.000-08:00

Both teams are looking to bounce back from ugly thrashings. While many expected the Bears to throttle the 49ers, the Vikings were supposed to be able to hold their own with the Patriots Monday night. So let's take a look at the injury issues each team faces:

49ers

Probable: Taylor Jacobs, WR (Hamstring)
Questionable: Maurice Hicks, RB (Concussion); Chad Williams, S (Thigh)
Doubtful: Vernon Davis, TE (Leg)

Vikings

Probable: Kevin Williams, DT (Ankle); Ben Leber, LB (Flu); Artis Hicks, G (Neck); Marcus Johnson, T (Ankle); Darren Sharper, S (Knee); Matt Birk, C (Knee); Pat Williams, DT (Knee); Tarvaris Jackson, QB (Knee); Ciatrick Fason, RB (Shoulder)
Questionable: Napolean Harris, LB (Wrist)
Out: Marcus Robinson, WR (Back)

Analysis
The 49ers offense could be looking at a BIG opportunity against a banged up Vikings defense. 5 different Vikings defenders are probable or questionable. While probable is pretty much the same as "gonna play," the 49ers have to go at these guys hard. A healthy offensive line and the power of Frank Gore could do some good things against a hurting defense.

On the offensive side of things, the middle/right side of the Vikings offensive line is also a little bit banged. This could provide some opportunities for the 49ers to create some kind of pass rush. While you need to have a good secondary, a good pass rush can make up for weaknesses deeper in the defense.

11/4 Daily Links

2006-11-04T10:58:00.000-08:00

Am I the only one who finds it curious that there have been a pair of articles practically back-to-back about Drew Rosenhaus and Frank Gore? It's not necessarily a bad thing. Then again it could be a bad thing. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I've always felt Brad Johnson is a tough player to decipher. He's had good stretches and bad stretches. Even when he's put up solid numbers there's always been a younger, flashier model in the garage waiting to replace him. All of this is basically a lead up to an interesting article about Norv Turner's effect on Brad Johnson. Johnson played in Washington in 1999 and 2000, which allowed him to be tutored by head coach Norv Turner, widely recognized as a QB-star maker (see Aikman, Troy). After leaving the Redskins for Tampa Bay, Johnson had 4 quality years before an abbreviated 2004 campaign. He seems to be at the stage of his career where you won't get a lot of big plays, but you'll get a safe solid field general. Sort of a slightly better version of 2000 Trent Dilfer (Super Bowl-winning mind you). I'll go over this in further detail with the game preview, but it's certainly of note.

2-TE sets per the Football Outsiders

2006-11-03T13:43:00.000-08:00

Football Outsiders posted an article today dealing with the use of an extra tight end and the options it provides in the passing game. Apparently they also discussed the 2-TE set and its impact on the running game two weeks ago. What timing!

Multiple tight ends in the passing game

Multiple tight ends in the running game

11/03 Daily Links

2006-11-03T09:12:00.000-08:00

As always, some of these links may require registration. Any link with registration is free. I actually might create a registration for these websites with a username and password that everyone can use.

This eye thing with Derek Smith is getting really bizarre. He seems like a good tough guy to have on the team, so hopefully this will clear up.

On the one hand, you're just waiting for Antonio Bryant to blow up. On the other, more important hand, he may finally be maturing. Hopefully he'll start to get his numbers.

Apparently Dennis Georgatos goes under the stage name Captain Obvious. Thanks for reinforcing the obvious.

It certainly appears the Vikings are looking forward to facing the 31st ranked defense this weekend. To quote Lou Brown in Major League, "I'm not one for wasting reporters' time, but let's give them all a big shitburger!"

2 Tight Ends

2006-11-02T20:47:00.000-08:00

Entering this season, my dreams were filled with visions of 2-TE sets dominating the field. Clearly I didn't expect this right away, but the hands of Eric Johnson, combined with the raw talent of Vernon Davis should have been and still should be the combination that would dominate. I felt the use of 2-TE sets combined with Frank Gore and Antonio Bryant's big-play abilit would be the key to an offensive resurgence.

Several issues have arisen to prevent the two tight ends from busting out together. Vernon Davis had rookie up and downs in the first 3 weeks, followed by a broken fibula that has kept him out since. Eric Johnson had a really solid week 3 (7 catches, 87 yards, 1 TD), followed by 4 pedestrian weeks with no more than 3 catches and 40 yards. It appears that while Eric Johnson isn't in Nolan's doghouse, he is not quite one of "Nolan's guys." I understand that a coach wants his personnel in place. That makes the most sense when dealing with less talented players. However, Eric Johnson is no slouch, when healthy. His position coach in 2004, Dan Cozzetto said, "He's got a God-given ability to find ways to get open. Sometimes we wonder if he's got eyes in the back of his head." Eric Johnson is TOO good to not be more involved in the offense.

I truly believe the team needs to integrate Eric Johnson AND Vernon Davis into the offense to become a consistently successful offensive team. Your basic 2-TE set would be (pardon the layout. Couldn't figure out how to get it to format straight across):

WR

TE
T
G
C QB RB
G
T
TE

WR

Bryant provides the big play, Frank Gore brings the power running game and Arnaz Battle provides the possession receiver. The options then available to your TEs are numerous. You guarantee yourself some kind of mismatch with virtually every possession. Just the ability to line Vernon Davis up with a linebacker and then send him in motion out to the slot gives me goosebumps. Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten are all great tight ends. The 49ers have the opportunity to put two such talents on the field at the same time. Johnson and Arnaz Battle soften up the middle of the field, opening up the sidelines for Antonio Bryant and Vernon Davis to break the big play.

In the coming weeks, when Vernon Davis comes off the injured list, it'll be like Christmas. The 2-TE set is the Christmas present I've been waiting for since the Vernon Davis first put on a 49ers cap at the draft.

Walt Harris Q&A

2006-11-02T15:02:00.000-08:00

Nothing earth shattering, but always entertaining to get inside the head of the players.

http://49ers.com/pressbox/news_detail.php?PRKey=2486

Midweek Injury Update

2006-11-02T09:29:00.000-08:00

RB Maurice Hicks: Still being held out of practice with aftereffects of a concussion

S Chad Williams: Held out of practice after quadricep strain

TE Vernon Davis: Ran on the sideline with trainer Jeff Ferguson, but is still listed as doubtful for this weekend

LB Jeff Ulbrich: Apparently has a small fracture of his wrist. Says that he can tolerate the pain and expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday

11/01 Daily Links

2006-11-01T10:08:00.000-08:00

For those checking, sometimes you have to register at the various newspaper websites. Registration at the websites for any of the links I provide is free and pretty quick to set up. Any questions, let me know.

So apparently they're not youthful, they're just bad.

Time to cash in for Frank Gore. Apparently Drew Rosenhaus ISN'T Satan...at least according to him.

Interesting little article comparing Andy Reid's press conference following their loss at Jacksonville with what Mike Nolan tries to sell in his press conference.

Here's a rundown of the league at the quasi-halfway point. Since it's 17 weeks would like Wednesday or Thursday be considered "halfway?" I've often wondered that.

Here he comes to Save the Day!!!

2006-11-01T09:37:00.000-08:00

Ok maybe Donald Strickland won't exactly save the day, but when you're 31st against the pass, it can't get a whole lot worse...Do I hear 32nd in the rankings, 32nd going once?

49ers-Vikings Rankings

2006-10-31T21:30:00.000-08:00

49ers Total Offense: 20
Vikings Total Offense: 17

49ers PASSING Offense: 22
Vikings PASSING Offense: 14

49ers RUSHING Offense: 10
Vikings RUSHING Offense: 18

49ers Total Defense: 31
Vikings Total Offense: 12

49ers RUN Defense: 22
Vikings RUN Defense: 2

49ers PASS Defense: 31
Vikings PASS Defense: 26

Strictly looking at the rankings, Gore will face a stiff challenge. If Frank can repeat last week's performance (with about 10 more carries), he will clearly continue his climb into the elite rank of running backs.

If Gore gets shutdown, the rankings would indicate the Vikings pass defense can be exploited. However, a closer examination shows that it's not quite as bad as yards per game would indicate. Using the Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Minnesota Vikings defense goes from #26 to #10. I'll go into the Football Outsiders a little more down the road, but suffice to say, they show the Vikings defense as much better than the numbers indicate.

Depressed Fan Base

2006-10-31T13:31:00.000-08:00

Nolan keeps spinning hope as others despair

49ers Nolan can't skirt blame for disastrous season

Reading through the clips today, one would think the 49ers were winless, Alex Smith had regressed to throwing an interception every play, Frank Gore was averaging 1.2 yards per carry and Kwame Harris couldn't defend 165 lbs of me without getting a holding penalty. Well needless to say only one of those things is true.

It was a given that this team was still rebuilding entering this season. However, they hung with a supposedly improved Cardinals team and beat the Rams in relatively convincing fashion, which meant they were speeding up this rebuilding process.

Well clearly parts of the rebuilding process are more advanced than others. In spite of the turnovers on Sunday, the offense is clearly much improved. Throw out the 53 yard run and Gore STILL averaged over 5 yards a carry against the vaunted Bears defense. Alex Smith connected on a beautiful pass to Antonio Bryant. Of course Kwame Harris continues to make mistakes. But things are clearly getting better, and with Vernon Davis on the mend, this offense could become downright explosive.

Defensively, it's a different story. Throw out the 2 wins and the defense has given up 40.4 points a game. They simply can not stop teams from scoring. That's not exactly the most insightful analysis, but it's the truth. However, more people should realize this was the case from Day 1. The team worked to improve the offense this past offseason and has clearly improved it. However, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter signed with the Seahawks and Redskins, respectively. As good as Manny Lawson has been, he's still just a rookie learning the system and what it takes to be a professional (Although I believe that 10 years from now he'll have had a better career than former college teammate and #1 pick Mario Williams, but that's a story for a different day).

The point of that tangent is that I fully expect the personnel department to do a full-scale rebuilding of the defense next spring and summer through the draft and free agency. After starting to build the offense, the 49ers had a defensive-heavy draft in 1981, which yielded the likes of Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson. While a repeat of the '81 class might be tough, the opportunity is there.

I'm not saying the team can expect to go to the Super Bowl like the 1981 squad, but there could be tremendous improvement next year. People certainly don't have to drink the Kool-Aid, but I don't think everyone needs to jump off the bridge just because they got slaughtered by an excellent Bears team.

10/30 Injury Report

2006-10-30T15:40:00.001-08:00

While the team's psyche should be bruised after yesterday, physically, the team is in good shape.

Maurice Hicks - Questionable (Concussion) - The Chronicle game recap listed Hicks as the only player on the injury report, while sf49ers.com listed nobody on the injury report. I'd expect Hicks to show up there as well once MRIs are completed and the team releases their first official injury report later this week.

Bears 41 - 49ers 10

2006-10-29T18:32:00.000-08:00

So unfortunately I came pretty close to nailing the worst case scenario...at least for the first half. The 49ers did everything in their power to help the Bears replicate the 1986 Super Bowl Shuffle squad. After one half I really didn't feel like there would be any positives to come out of this loss, but low and behold, the 49ers did manage to put something together in the 2nd half. So, onto the good, the bad and the future.

The Good

Frank Gore managed to rush for 111 yards on a mere 12 carries. Even if you take out the 53 yard skamper early in the 4th quarter, that's 5.3 yards per carry against the best defense in football.
No major injuries as the injury report for next week right now consists only of Maurice Hicks
The Bears were shut out in the 2nd half

The Bad

The reason Gore only had 12 carries was due mostly to the fact that the team was down early and often. Even though they went for it on 4th down once in the 2nd half, the Bears more or less took the pedal off the metal the last 30 minutes of the game. There was a healthy dose of Brian Griese, although I'm surprised Cedric Benson did not get more touches.
Alex Smith didn't have an atrocious game in terms of passing, but the turnovers were definitely an issue. 2 fumbles lost and the interception did not help the cause as the Bears put a touchdown on the board after every turnover. Not how you beat an undefeated team.

The Future

A feisty Vikings squad comes to Monster Park next week coming off a short week due to tonight's MNF matchup against the Patriots. The Vikings are 4-2 and appear to be in the early driver's seat for a wild card berth (no way they pass Da Bears). A stout defense combined with a conservative, but solid offense makes them a tough matchup. More to come after the Vikings get through tonight.

Week 8 Game Day Links

2006-10-29T08:46:00.000-08:00

Quick Chronicle Preview

Quality piece on BY who could very well be playing his last season with the team

Eric Johnson has had to prove himself over and over again

Turner vs. Turner

Trust me, nobody's gonna forget Vasher's 108 yard TD return

Brian Urlacher? Yea he's pretty good!

Ya think?!

Interesting take on Mike Singletary as a conduit between the 2 teams

The Sac Bee gives a brief look into Eric Johnson's pre-game preparation

2006-10-28T23:31:00.001-07:00

Technorati Profile

Final Thoughts and Analysis for Week 8

2006-10-28T20:58:00.000-07:00

While this is just 1 game out of 16, I'll just say that I'd like to see a statement made in this game. A victory is gonna be quite tough and obviously is unexpected. The 49ers are 16 point underdogs, so clearly nobody thinks they can win this game. Dan Shanoff (formerly of ESPN's Daily Quickie) in picking the Bears said: "There will be no need for any sort of Monday Night Miracle." Well maybe the Bears will need a Sunday Morning Miracle.

If the 49ers can get on the board early this could turn into a decent little game. Maybe we can get something akin to Rocky: "The Russian is Cut!" and to quote Duke, "You see? He's not a machine! He's a man!" I realize maybe I'm going overboard for just another regular season game. But if this team is going to continue on th rebuilding path, they're gonna have to start beating teams like this. All wins count the same, but continually beating the Rams isn't gonna cut it long term.

Now for predictions. Each week I'm gonna give a best case prediction and a worst case prediction with a little description of how and why:

Best Case Scenario
49ers 24 - Bears 9: The Bears defense falters without Mike Brown. Thanks to the healthy offensive line, Frank Gore runs wild and Alex Smith has time to pick apart the patchwork secondary. Rex Grossman's struggles continue and by the 4th quarter Kyle Orton is under center. New schemes confuse the Bears leading and combined with a more physical secondary, the Bears receivers are not allowed to break any big plays.

Worst Case Scenario
Bears 45 - 49ers 0: Rex Grossman bounces back from his hiccup against the Cardinals to shred the 49ers secondary. Cedric Benson ends up playing half the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter as Thomas Jones gets the time off. The Bears defense overwhelms the young 49ers as Alex Smith throws 3 interceptions and Frank Gore rushes for less than 50 yards.

Let's hope for the best, pray against the worst and expect something in between.

49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Defensive Matchups Preview

2006-10-28T20:25:00.000-07:00

2 weeks ago, the world was privy to one of the all time fantasy stinkers, as Rex Grossman went 14-37 for 144 yards with no TDs, 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles, single-handedly destroying many a week 6 fantasy matchup. The Bears won thanks to the self destruction of the Arizona Cardinals offense, pure and simple. I'm of the belief that the Bears offense clearly isn't as bad as it was 2 weeks ago, and yet I also don't believe they are quite as good as they were the first 5 weeks. Of course my beloved 49ers made Damon Huard look like the coming of...well anybody but Damon Huard.

Coming off the bye, I'm not going to address individual matchups. You may be asking yourself why I would that when this is titled Matchups Preview. Well, changes appear to be brewing in the kitchen. Mike Nolan has said that the team will be evaluating everybody on the defensive side of the ball and we may see new personnel and new packages and schemes to try and bring down that 32 point per game average. People have been calling for the team to switch to a 4-3 defensive set for some time now. Will we finally see that?

After Grossman's struggles in Week 6, expect to see a healthy dose of Thomas Jones this week. If things get out of hand we may get an un-welcome dose of Cedric Benson. If they do decide to go vertical, let's just hope the 49ers secondary gets physical and pops the Bears in the mouth.

49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Offensive Matchups Preview

2006-10-28T19:17:00.000-07:00

Whenever I read about the game-day matchups in the San Francisco Examiner on Friday, I see RB Frank Gore vs. MLB Brian Urlacher or QB Alex Smith vs. SS Todd Johnson. While I see the point of the 1-on-1 matchup, a lot of times it just doesn't apply. Obviously a WR vs. CB is logical. But I plan on exploring unit matchups such as running game vs. defensive line or Alex Smith vs. Bears secondary. I just want to mix in traditional analysis with some less utilized analysis. Additionally, while I'm getting the hang of things, I will not be looking at every potential matchup in the game, but rather a couple of the more important matchups.

Alex Smith vs. Bears Secondary: If the Bears were at full health this would be a bit of a mismatch. Mike Brown is as much the heart and soul of this defense as Brian Urlacher. Ricky Manning has put together an impressive season in spite of some off the field issues. If Manning joins Brown on the sideline tomorrow Smith might actually have a chance to make some plays. This will be the Bears first full game without Brown, so we'll see if the bye week allowed them to move past the injury. I believe the Bears are professional enough to move past it, however the drop off talent provides a potential for the 49ers offense to come out with some confidence.

49ers running game vs. Bears D-line/Linebackers: The o-line sees the return of Jonas Jennings are Larry Allen, a.k.a the entire left side of the line. Seeing a the unit together for the first time since week 1 will be a welcome sight. While they can't stop Frank Gore from fumbling the ball, they should be able to give him holes to bounce through. While they may not get 100 yards out of Gore, the 49ers are gonna need him to pound through those holes to wear down the defense, draw in the secondary and open up the play-action.

49ers @ Bears - Week 8 Injury Preview

2006-10-28T16:55:00.000-07:00

After watching the Beavers of Oregon State knock off USC, one would think ANYTHING is possible...meaning HERE COME THE 49ERS! Well not quite. This year's USC team is certainly a notch below the last few editions and they were at Corvallis. This 49ers team will be going into the much-vaunted Soldier Field and will be facing a defense that is great (although not necessarily an all-time great as many analysts make it out to be...more on that later).

Injuries
49ers - Probable: Walt Harris (Hamstring); Jonas Jennings (Hand); Larry Allen (Knee); Bryant Young (Back)
Questionable: Taylor Jacobs (Hamstring)
Out: Vernon Davis (Leg)

Bears - Probable: Ricky Manning, CB (Hamstring)
Questionable: Mark Bradley,WR (Ankle); Chris Harris, FS (Quadricep); Leon Joe, LB (Hamstring); Adewale Ogunleye, DE (Hamstring)
Out: Mike Brown, FS (Foot)

Analysis
While any sane person would never wish ill-will on an opponent, for once, the 49ers are in the better position in terms of injuries. The team will be getting back the entire right side of their offensive line, no small boon even before recognizing the talent of Jennings and Allen. Facing off against the Bears defense with a completely healthy o-line (unfortunately not counting Jeremy Newberry amongst them) is HUGE for this team to have a chance at hanging around in this one.

I normally wouldn't include a player on the IR list (Mike Brown), but I believe this is a huge injury that provides one more opportunity for the 49ers to have a chance at making this respectable and possibly I repeat possibly having a chance to pull the monstrous upset of the Monsters of the Midway.

Weekly Layout

2006-10-27T19:40:00.000-07:00

The first thing I want to do is provide a layout of what will appear on this website. I don't claim to have any insight into the organization, or a contact that provides me with inside info...at least not yet. The hard data I provide is going to be culled from throughout the World Wide Web, primarily from Bay Area newspapers, the 49ers website and other prominent websites. Nothing earth shattering you can't find on your own, but I'd like to be able to bring it all together here. So here's what you'll find:

Injury Reports - The usual list of probables, questionables, etc... combined with analysis on if they really won't play and the affect that will have on the tea
Game Day Preview - Address the various matchups issues. And not necessarily "Frank Gore vs. Brian Urlacher." I'd rather address something like QB vs. Secondary or RB vs. Linebackers. This is such a team-oriented sport that there are very few times that you can address a 1-on-1 matchup without considering other players influence.
Game Recap - I won't simply look at the good OR the bad. I'll address both with some sense of balance. I've seen too many websites that are too harsh or "drinking too much of the Kool-Aid." I love the 49ers and I realize they have many issues to address, but also have made great strides in certain areas
Position-by-Position Analysis - This will happen more randomly, often based on issues that have come up (injury , demotion, etc.)
Offseason Issues - I'll address free agency, retirements, trades, the draft and minicamp and give my own personal analysis.
Outside news articles - I'm slowly becoming a fan of footballoutsiders.com among other websites. I'll post any interesting outside analysis if I feel it's pertinent.

This is a first for me, so there will be some growing pains as I figure out a good schedule for posting and come up with new ideas to post. And of course I'm always going to be on the lookout for suggestions. My favorite fan blog is athleticsnation.com and if I can get even half their following I'd consider it a major success. So we'll see how this goes and I'll be posting soon. Thanks for visiting.

Welcome

2006-10-27T16:34:00.000-07:00

I'll go into more depth later, but for now I've been a 49ers fan since I was a kid growing up in Las Vegas in the mid 80s. Clearly I jumped on the bandwagon, but what's a 6 year old with no NFL affiliation supposed to do? In the 20+ years since I've remained a fan so I think I've earned my stripes.