Friday, December 22, 2006

WE'VE MOVED

No, not the 49ers. This blog was only meant as a temporary home, and so after a brief stay at blogspot, this blog has joined Sports Blog Nation and now resides at http://www.ninersnation.com. I feel this will be a much better option for interaction. SB Nation has an option where visitors to the site can post diaries, which means you guys can get your insight published a little more prominently than just in an open thread. If you have something particularly insightful, I have the option of pulling it up to the main screen for all to see more prominently.

So thanks for your visits and I appreciate all the comments. We've already for a few people registered at Niners Nation so feel free to join in (it's free).

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Why Not Us???

The 49ers may be two games out with two game to go, but it's not like the Seahawks are grabbing the bull by the horns when it comes to locking up this division. Dan Arkush of Pro Football Weekly points out that the 49ers have momentum on their side, and considering how bad the NFC has become, why not the 49ers as Western division champs?

Pro Bowl Rosters - Larry Allen left out or not??

The NFL released their Pro Bowl Rosters for the annual exhibition in Hawaii. Obviously Frank Gore made it, but I'm a little confused about another 49er. 49ers.com says that Larry Allen made the team, but the nfl.com and espn.com roster lists don't mention him. Before visiting the 49ers website I was going to say I was disappointed Allen didn't make considering the job he's done on the offensive line since coming back from injury. But I guess that doesn't matter anymore.

Additionally, Walt Harris is a first alternate and Bryant Young is a second alternate. If any corrections are made I'll post it.

***EDITOR'S NOTE*** - ESPN DID IN FACT CORRECT THEIR ARTICLE AND LARRY ALLEN IS NOW LISTED WITH THE OFFENSIVE GUARDS

Monday, December 18, 2006

Rookie report

I'm planning on putting together my own report on the 49ers draft class of 2006, but in the meantime Kevin Lynch has a nice piece about them at the Chronicle. While there have been struggles, this could turn into a decent class for the 49ers with 3 starters (Davis, Lawson and Oliver) and a handful creating needed depth (Robinson, Hudson, Walker and Williams).

It is just as interesting to look at where the 2005 draft class is now. You're getting significant contributions from Smith, Gore, Baas, Snyder and Fields, while Estes and Bajema have stayed on as backups. I definitely plan on doing a more in-depth analysis, particularly where it could lead in the 2007 draft.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Updated playoff picture

With Week 15 complete for the NFC, let's take a look at the current playoff picture, overall and where the 49ers fit in. First some of the major happenings that affected the post season picture:

Chicago Bears
- In spite of blowing a 14 point lead, they held on to edge the Bucs, thus clinching the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints - In spite of a shocking loss to the Redskins, they clinched the South with the Panthers annihilation at the hands of the Steelers.
Dallas Cowboys - Clinched a playoff spot with their win combined with Carolina and the Giants losing.
Philadelphia Eagles - Moved into prime position for a wild card berth by beating the Giants. If they win their last 2 they'll win the East.

YOUR San Francisco 49ers
On the outside looking in, the 49ers face an interesting next two weeks. They could win the division if they win their next two and Seattle loses their next two. However, the wild card is a much more interesting picture.

The Giants and Falcons are both 7-7. The Giants face a tough two weeks against New Orleans and at Washington, while the Falcons face Carolina at home and Philadelphia on the road. It is entirely possible both teams lose at least one of their remaining two games. The problem for the 49ers is that if the Giants finish 8-8, they'll hold the conference record tie-breaker over San Francisco.

If Atlanta finishes 8-8, they'd be 6-6 in conference, same as the 49ers. The next tiebreaker is record versus common opponents, minimum of four. By the end of the season they'll have faced 4 similar opponents (Arizona, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia). If both are 8-8, the 49ers will be 2-3, while the Falcons will be either 2-3 or 1-4. If they're still tied there, strength of victory, followed by strength of schedule are the next two tiebreakers.

Finally, San Francisco is tied with the Carolina, Green Bay, Minnesota and St. Louis. The 49ers hold tiebreakers over Minnesota (head-to-head) and St. Louis (divisional record). If Carolina wins their remaining two they'll hold the tiebreaker for record against common opponent, while Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Francisco.

So what does all this mean? Well first, who'd have thought that going into week 16 we'd be discussing potential playoff scenarios for the 49ers? I said at the beginning of the year I'd be happy with 6-10. If they play well these last two games but lose both I still can consider this year a very big step forward. That doesn't mean I'll be happy with the finish but I can accept it.

More importantly, the team has two very tough opponents left, at home against Arizona and at Mile High against Denver. Arizona has been playing well as of late and the Broncos look to be fighting for their playoff lives in week 17. Of course if they don't show up this Sunday this will all be for naught. So we'll just have to take it one week at a time. Either way it'll be fun.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

A healthy dose of crow baby!

I am MORE than happy to admit that I was wrong in my prediction. But this was certainly a tale of 2 games. Prior to the deep ball to Battle at the end of the 3rd quarter, Alex Smith couldn't get anything going. From that point forward, the 49er offense was absolutely on fire. Frank Gore blew up in the 4th quarter, Alex Smith went to his primary weapons and the 49ers shocked the Seahawks. I thought I was being a realist in not expecting a great showing. I'm glad to say this team proved me wrong big time. They lose Eric Heitman to a broken leg, but gutted out a very tough win. This may be the ugliest 24-14 win you'll ever see, but the W is what counts.

The Good
  • The offense blew up in the 4th quarter as the running and passing games clicked.
  • While aided by the elements, the defense stepped up in spite of a rash of injuries
The Bad
  • If you throw out the score, there was plenty to complain about. HOWEVER, this game was too much fun to do any complaining. Sometimes you just have to sit back and enjoy what's given to you
The Future
The team gets rewarded with a few extra days to prep for Arizona at home next week. In week 1 the 49ers hung tough but couldn't spoil the Cardinals home opener in their new stadium. Since then the Cardinals have been a disappointment while the 49ers have shocked many. A win here and the 49ers guarantee themselves a 7-9 season. Combine it with a Seattle loss to San Diego and the 49ers will have something to play for in week 17 for the first time in several years.

One additional note on this game: While the St. Louis win was nice and every other win counts equally, this was my favorite game/win of the year. The 49ers snuck up on the Rams, the Vikings, Lions and Raiders are not so good and the win over Seattle at home could be in part due to the Seahawks injuries at the time. This time, there are no excuses. There was bad weather but that affected both teams. Seattle had San Francisco on the ropes on offense but couldn't put them away. Now let's see what this team can do the last 2 weeks of the year.

40+ mph winds expected tonight - in a related noted, Frank Gore and Shaun Alexander expect to combine for 117 carries!

Lock down the ramparts and hide in your basement, because it could be a wild game tonight. A big storm is coming to Seattle leading to 40+ mph winds with gusts up to 65 mph and a high wind warning in effect. Some of you may remember the game in Chicago last year that saw winds gusting at 47 mph. For those that don't remember, Cody Pickett was 1-for-13 for 28 yards and passes and field goal attempts were flying every which way. It should make for an interesting game tonight.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Week 15 preview - 49ers @ Seahawks

I think I've made it pretty clear that I don't have a good feeling about this game. The offense might get some things done, but the Seahawks are well overdue for an offensive explosion. Combine that with a 49ers defense that is absolutely decimated on defense and it does not bode well for a road game in Seattle.

Best Case Scenario (Maybe even a little unrealistic)
49ers 31 - Seahawks 17: The Seahawks struggle in getting the offense going yet again, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis continue to connect and develop a chemistry while Frank Gore blows through the Seattle defense. With the receiving corp struggling, the Smith-Davis duo could prove huge the rest of the way. A lack of Darrell Jackson's big play ability makes the Seahawks one dimensional. The patchwork 49ers defense somehow performs a miracle and contains Seattle.

Worst Case Scenario
Seahawks 48 - 49ers 6: The Seahawks offense clicks on all cylinders. Hasselbeck spreads the wealth without Darrell Jackson and Shaun Alexander rolls over the depleted 49ers defense. The defense is down to 3rd and 4th string corners and while they put forth the effort, the results are not so good. Due to falling behind big early, the Seahawks defense stacks the box against Gore and tees off on Alex Smith. The offense just can't get going.

Prediction
Seahawks 42 - 49ers 17: I think the 49ers can get some offense going but they can't hang with the high-flying Seahawks. The team has struggled the last few weeks but been competitive (excluding the 2nd half of the Saints game) and I think the struggles will really catch up this week.

2nd Injury update

A few big things I either overlooked yesterday, or are new today per the Chronicle's new report.
  • Donald Strickland is out for the year due to a sprained MCL, but definitely wants to come back next year.
  • Sammy Davis was placed on the IR yesterday due to a thigh injury.
  • Ulbrich is questionable, although he has practiced. Jay Foreman will see some action and would probably start if Ulbrich can't go tomorrow.
If Spencer can't play tomorrow, the secondary will end up being a hodge-podge of assorted parts. BJ Tucker and Marcus Hudson will get playing time if Spencer can't go, which only further increases my worries about this game. A respectable showing by the defense would do wonders for the mental state of this team. A worst case scenario would see the team's secondary get shredded while Alexander runs all over. A best case scenario would see the youngsters racing all over the field making plays and playing with a fire some of the veterans might be losing as the season winds down.

More in the preview tomorrow.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Injury Report

It's been rough-going the last couple of weeks with the injuries piling up as the team has been struggling.
  • Adam Snyder is out for Thursday's game due to his knee issues
  • Eric Johnson and Derek Smith will get in individual workouts and hopefully show enough progress to play this week. Even if Johnson is healthy, I'd expect to see a lot of Vernon Davis after his solid performance this past week. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
  • Shawntae Spencer is supposed to practice today and is listed as questionable. Getting Spencer back would be huge for the secondary, particuarly considering the aerial attack the Seahawks bring to the table.
  • Donald Strickland is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. He's been solid as he's been getting a lot of PT due to injuries. If they can have Strickland and Spencer on the field the secondary will have a fighting chance

ESPN.Com Coaches Grades

Well this is certainly timed well. ESPN has their coach ratings, voted on by the general public. On the season, Mike Nolan's approval average rests at 86%, while the current week has him at 65%. His lowest rating of the year was 50% following the loss to the Bears. Although I am critical of aspects of his coaching, I certainly approve of him as a head coach. Like Alex Smith he's learning on the job and will only get better. He's not perfect but at least he's not Dennis Erickson!

Monday, December 11, 2006

Mike Nolan Analysis

First off, I want it to be known that I'm not looking to try and get Nolan fired. I simply take issue with his decision-making and game management abilities and I know I can't be the only one.

Clock Management
Numerous halves have ended with the 49ers squandering field position, time and timeouts. I recall a game in which the 49ers had the ball and looked to be running out the clock. Next thing you know a timeout is called, followed by a run up the middle to run out the half. The only explanation is that he thought he could get something done, but then decided to just end the half instead of potentially turning the ball over and getting an INT run back for a touchdown. Nonetheless this type of scenario has played out too many times.

Use of Timeouts
Against the Saints, the 49ers ran out of their allotted timeouts in each half with over 10 minutes left in the halves. They've had to call timeouts numerous times when they've had improper personnel on the field. In the Saints game the timeouts really didn't mean much, considering they got blown out in the second half. However, if this team is going to improve, they really need to make better use of their timeouts.

Game-time Personnel Decisions
This one bugs me because it seems like something a head coach should be in total control of and keep straight. During the Saints game it was 4th and 1 and the Saints elected to go for it. The 49ers had to call timeout because they had the improper personnel package on the field. The problem wasn't that they had their punting unit out there. The problem was that they had a combination of personnel from their 4th down defense and their punting unit on the field at the same time. That's simply unacceptable.

Solution?
Mike Singletary is currently assistant head coach while focusing on the defense. He is certainly one of the rising stars in the league and will likely get a head coaching job in the near future. While I love having him in the organization, I think the team needs some sort of assistant head coach for quality control, if you will. Prior to becoming the Ravens offensive coordinator, Jim Fassel was a general assistant to Brian Billick. I believe the 49ers could use a veteran former coach that has been around the block to assist Mike Nolan. Mike Nolan has done a great job bringing in talent and motivating his players. However, his game management definitely leaves something to be desired. I think a veteran assistant could give Nolan insight
and help him develop as a head coach, much like coaches help players develop into their talents.

Mike Nolan clearly has what it takes to be a success in this league. While we spend all our time worrying about the development of Alex Smith or Manny Lawson or Vernon Davis, it is of equal importance that we consider the development of Mike Nolan. When you've got a young coach working with young players, it really is a team effort in improving. Even if the team doesn't win another game, Mike Nolan has 3 opportunities left this year to improve and build more for next year.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Some ugh mixed with only a little silver lining

Well that certainly wasn't the prettiest game. A win would have kept the team 1 game back of the last wild card spot and 2 back of Seattle with their upcoming Thursday night matchup. Instead they're 2 back of the wild card and 3 back of Seattle with 3 games remaining. So needless to say this loss unofficially ended the 49ers playoff hopes, leaving only the faintest of hopes.

The Good
  • Vernon Davis came up big with 1 TD, had another big catch called back on a holding penalty and was open on the interception in the end zone. We'll see if he can continue to develop in the final 3 games.
  • Frank Gore had a big game on the ground excluding the fumble.
  • Alex Smith did manage to connect with Davis and Bryant on big plays for the first time in some time.
The Bad
  • Alex Smith really struggled for a lot of the game and made too many mental mistakes. While he looked good late in the game he appeared to regress for much of the game.
  • Frank Gore had a bad fumble deep in 49er territory, although the defense held the Packers to only a field goal.
The Other
  • I'm not really sure where to put the defense but considering some of the wide open Packer receivers, we'll go with bad. Favre looked good, but the defense kept the team in it for much of the time. In spite of some struggles, the defense has done relatively well considering how bad they looked early on and how little depth they have.
The Future
The team faces a short week before heading into Seattle. A Seattle win would officially clinch the division. While I like the opportunity of playing spoiler, I have a bad feeling about this game. Seattle hasn't completely jelled since the return of Alexander and Hasselbeck and I really think this could be the week. I could see a 42-17 type win for Seattle. Hopefully I'm wrong and the 49ers step up. We shall see. Injury updates to come.

TD GORE

After a mistake filled first half, the 49ers have cut the deficit to 4 points with Frank Gore's TD. The defense wasn't perfect in the first half, but they kept the offense in the game and they finally got a big play from Antonio Bryant to get them deep in Green Bay territory. We'll see what the rest of the game will bring.

Playoff Implications baby

With the crappiness of the NFC this year, here's how it shakes down. If the 49ers win today, next week game has huge implications for a team trying to shock the world and make the playoffs. If the 49ers lose today, next week's game is just about meaningless. Pretty simple really.

Best Case Scenario
49ers 31 Packers 3 - Favre continues to tarnish his legacy throwing 3 picks while Ahman Green gets nothing going on the ground. The Packers try and stack the line against Gore but Smith is able to make them pay with a couple long touchdowns, while Gore still gets his yards.

Worst Case Scenario
Packers 31 49ers 6 - Favre is able to string together some magic in his potential last game in the Bay Area. He throws 3 TDs and only one pick while Ahman Green rushes for over 100 yards. Alex Smith continues to struggle and Frank Gore can't get anything with 8 Packers stacked in the box.

Prediction
I'm gonna go with 49ers 27 Packers 14 - I'd expect the Packers to stack the box so Alex Smith is gonna HAVE to beat them. Any running back will struggle when it's 7 or 8 on 1. If Smith can beat them deep once, that'll force the Packers to play a little more honest.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Parrish Waived, Smith and Snyder Out

Well certainly a couple of big injuries in Sunday's game.
  • Derek Smith has a strained hamstring
  • Adam Snyder sprained his ankle and MCL
With Smith's injury the 49ers signed LB Jay Foreman. The team made room for Foreman by waiving veteran Tony Parrish. It's tough to see a veteran like Parrish get dumped, but sometimes you just have to cut bait and move on. Foreman was let go by the Raiders to start the season but he put up good numbers in 2002 and 2003 with 107 and 101 solo tackles respectively.

Initial reports had Smith and Snyder potentially being out for the year, but it appears they should only miss this week. Certainly key for the team's playoff hopes.

Just happy to be there???

I was checking out ESPN's updated power rankings today and a thought crossed my mind. The 49ers were ranked 22nd overall and the comment for them was: "Win or lose, getting to play in games down the stretch that actually mean something is going to be good for the development of this young team."

My question is, are you just happy to be watching games with meaning this late in the season? Even though they've lost back to back games with playoff implications, should we as fans just be happy to even have this opportunity? Personally, I think you can be happy to be there while still getting pissed off at bad losses. It's good to be playing meaningful games, but that's no excuse for poor play in my opinion.

Thoughts?

Monday, December 04, 2006

Mike Nolan's Game Management

I think this is something that I'll address in more detail when ninersnation.com launches in the coming weeks, but I've been thinking about it for much of this season and think it's something worth discussing.

Nolan and his staff have proven to be solid evaluators or talent. The team is young but the players Nolan has brought in have started to show their abilities. The problem I've had with Nolan is his in-game management. This would involve two aspects:
  • Use of timeouts
  • Use of challenges
  • Personnel on the field
Yesterday the team used up all their timeouts in both halves with plenty of time to spare. I really don't think it had any effect on the final score as the team never went into a 2-minute offense to tie the game or take the lead. However, this is not the first time Nolan has used up timeouts so quickly and eventually it's really gonna bite this time in the butt in a big game, whether it be next week or next year.

The biggest issue I had yesterday was when the Saints decided to go for it on 4th and inches. The team called timeout due to incorrect personel. If the team's punt return unit had been on the field had been on the field in anticipation of a punt then use the timeout no questions asked. Not the brightest move but not completely inexcusable. However, when you've got part of each unit on the field then there is a problem that I believe falls on the head coach. Coordinators can be blamed but the head coach is the man on the chopping block when it comes to the decisions. Nolan has often had incorrect personnel on the field which leads to undisciplined play and a general air of incompetence.

The team has to make the plays on the field, but sometimes they're not put into a better position for success by the coaching staff. I definitely plan on analyzing this in more detail later.

Speaking of which, does anybody out there have a username/password for Stats, Inc??? I'd love to get a crack at some of the statistics they run but can't gain access.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

So THAT'S why he was picked 2nd overall

People had begun calling Reggie Bush a bust as the 2nd overall pick. Well in singlehandedly beating the 49ers Bush probably quieted those naysayers for now. This game showed the talent Bush has, combined with the mountain still to climb by this 49ers team. Games like this are too be expected by a young team and maybe it's good that they bring the fans back to earth. Or maybe I'm just trying to excuse this performance.

Anyways, more later.

Halftime: 14-3 Saints

Well the second half certainly ended on a bad note. Yes, Reggie Bush is extremely talented and has that rare combination of moves that can embarrass defenders. But the 49ers definitely struggled in completing their tackles and in general looked pretty bad in doing so.

In a bit of a surprise, the offensive line has struggled. Alex Smith has been sacked twice and has appeared to be on the run all day. Gore is on pace for 22 carries but this is a game in which he should be on pace for 30-35 at least. The Saints struggle in stopping the run, which would seem to indicate that maybe you should run the ball more. We'll see what the second half brings. If it's more of the first half...well let's just hope it's not.

On a side note, Bill Maas hit the nail on the head: Poor use of timeouts. I don't really think the timeouts affected the score at the moment, but Mike Nolan continues to struggle in this area of coaching. When you've got half your defense and half your special teams on the field, that has to fall on the head coach. Even if he knew what he was calling, he has to communicate it to his specific coordinators/players so they don't have to waste a timeout. It's getting a little frustrating.

1st quarter: 3-0 San Francisco

Well that was certainly an interesting first quarter of football. I really didn't see a defensive struggle developing. Of course the best way to neutralize a potent offense is to dominate the time of possession and the 49ers did that in the first quarter. Nonetheless a touchdown would have been nice instead of that field goal.

On another note, I've criticized announcers before but I'm willing to acknowledge when a great point is made. Bill Maas noted that in spite of all the trick plays Norv Turner has pulled out, the Saints are still a bad team in defending the run, so why not just line up and pound it up the middle. It's an excellent point and makes perfect sense. I like trick plays but sometimes you don't need to reinvent the wheel. Include some trick plays but you don't need them every drive. Just often enough to know that it's a possibility.

Onto the second quarter with the Saints driving into San Francisco territory.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Week 13 @ New Orleans

Sorry for the limited number of postings this week. We've finally gotten our year end mostly done so I'll pick it up in the near future. More importantly, I've been picked up by Sports Blog Nation and will be moving to ninersnation.com. The site will launch in the next few weeks, so I'll keep my small but devoted fan base informed!

In the meantime, here's a quick preview for tomorrow's game. Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the game. Your insights are always welcome.

The best case scenario would see the Saints high-powered offense sputter without either Colston or Horn. Brees gets in his attempts but throws at least 3 interceptions. The 49ers offense tears up the Saints secondary, Frank Gore runs wild and the 49ers win 34-10.

The worst case scenario sees the Saints offense continue to roll, while the 49ers are playing catch up all game, effectively removing Frank Gore from the game. The 49ers offense isn't equipped to win a shootout and they lose 41-7.

I fear the worst in this game after blowing the Rams game, but I think Nolan will have everyone's head in the game and ready to make plays. The team seemed fired up after letting last week get away and I think they'll make a statement in rebounding to stay in the playoff race with a 27-17 win. Frank Gore runs wild and the defense stays aggressive ALL 60 MINUTES!